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Economía·Política Económica

Crecimiento del PIB en 2026

icon for Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
Economía·Política Económica

Crecimiento del PIB en 2026

ene 29, 2027

ene 29, 2027

>2,5% 34%

1.0–1.5% 23.8%

1,5–2,0% 17.4%

2.0–2.5% 13%

Polymarket

$27,282 Vol.

>2,5% 34%

1.0–1.5% 23.8%

1,5–2,0% 17.4%

2.0–2.5% 13%

Polymarket

$27,282 Vol.

<0.5%

$3,898 Vol.

6%

0.5–1.0%

$15,121 Vol.

6%

1.0–1.5%

$1,502 Vol.

24%

1,5–2,0%

$1,319 Vol.

17%

2.0–2.5%

$1,451 Vol.

13%

>2,5%

$3,991 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a modest rebound in U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with >2.5% leading at 34% implied probability following today's Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate of 2.0% annualized Q1 expansion—up sharply from Q4 2025's revised 0.5%—driven by resilient consumer spending and steady unemployment near 4.3%. Mid-tier outcomes (1.0–2.0%) cluster around 23% each, reflecting uncertainty from elevated inflation, firmer energy prices, emerging tariff pass-throughs, and Fed funds rate expectations amid FOMC projections for potential cuts. Upside risks stem from AI investment booms and strong nowcasts (e.g., New York Fed Q2 at 2.8%), while downside hinges on labor softening or geopolitical shocks; watch May nonfarm payrolls and Q2 GDP for catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$27,282
Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a modest rebound in U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with >2.5% leading at 34% implied probability following today's Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate of 2.0% annualized Q1 expansion—up sharply from Q4 2025's revised 0.5%—driven by resilient consumer spending and steady unemployment near 4.3%. Mid-tier outcomes (1.0–2.0%) cluster around 23% each, reflecting uncertainty from elevated inflation, firmer energy prices, emerging tariff pass-throughs, and Fed funds rate expectations amid FOMC projections for potential cuts. Upside risks stem from AI investment booms and strong nowcasts (e.g., New York Fed Q2 at 2.8%), while downside hinges on labor softening or geopolitical shocks; watch May nonfarm payrolls and Q2 GDP for catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$27,282
Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Crecimiento del PIB en 2026" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es ">2,5%" con 34%, seguido de "1.0–1.5%" con 24%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 34¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 34% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Crecimiento del PIB en 2026" ha generado $27.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Crecimiento del PIB en 2026", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Crecimiento del PIB en 2026" es ">2,5%" con 34%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 34% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1.0–1.5%" con 24%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Crecimiento del PIB en 2026" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.