Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the highest volume bucket at 29.5% implied probability for over 200 Truth Social posts by President Donald Trump from May 15-22, driven by his recent surge to 164 posts through May 13 in the prior weekly window—averaging over 27 daily amid the ongoing US-Iran war and frequent late-night reposts of supporter content and policy critiques. This elevated pace, up from a 2026 year-to-date average of 19 posts per day, edges out the 120-139 range at 22.5%, reflecting variability from presidential schedule demands like diplomatic negotiations or cabinet meetings that could induce lulls. Escalation in foreign policy tensions or high-profile announcements would favor separation toward 200+, while de-escalation signals might consolidate mid-range outcomes around historical baselines.