Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 56%-41% in 2024—despite incumbent Julia Brownley's January retirement creating an open race. State Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin leads Democratic contenders with $497,000 cash on hand as of March, far outpacing Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci ($28,000), bolstering hold odds ahead of the June 2 top-two primary where early voting began May 4. GOP chances at 6.5% hinge on barriers like weak fundraising and historical underperformance; realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing a strong Republican finalist, a major Democratic scandal, or a national midterm wave flipping Ventura County's affluent suburbs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-26 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-26 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$26,241 Vol.
$26,241 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
7%
$26,241 Vol.
$26,241 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$13,870 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$12,372 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 56%-41% in 2024—despite incumbent Julia Brownley's January retirement creating an open race. State Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin leads Democratic contenders with $497,000 cash on hand as of March, far outpacing Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci ($28,000), bolstering hold odds ahead of the June 2 top-two primary where early voting began May 4. GOP chances at 6.5% hinge on barriers like weak fundraising and historical underperformance; realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing a strong Republican finalist, a major Democratic scandal, or a national midterm wave flipping Ventura County's affluent suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$26,241Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 56%-41% in 2024—despite incumbent Julia Brownley's January retirement creating an open race. State Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin leads Democratic contenders with $497,000 cash on hand as of March, far outpacing Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci ($28,000), bolstering hold odds ahead of the June 2 top-two primary where early voting began May 4. GOP chances at 6.5% hinge on barriers like weak fundraising and historical underperformance; realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing a strong Republican finalist, a major Democratic scandal, or a national midterm wave flipping Ventura County's affluent suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,241Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it 56%-41% in 2024—despite incumbent Julia Brownley's January retirement creating an open race. State Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin leads Democratic contenders with $497,000 cash on hand as of March, far outpacing Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci ($28,000), bolstering hold odds ahead of the June 2 top-two primary where early voting began May 4. GOP chances at 6.5% hinge on barriers like weak fundraising and historical underperformance; realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing a strong Republican finalist, a major Democratic scandal, or a national midterm wave flipping Ventura County's affluent suburbs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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