Polymarket traders price a fragmented consensus for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with the 25-29.9% bin leading at 22.5% implied probability amid closely contested outcomes around 20-40%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% monthly CPI—the year's highest—pushing year-to-date accumulation to 9.4% and YoY to 32.6%, driven by education costs, fuel hikes tied to Middle East tensions, and regulated price adjustments, prompting IMF and Reuters poll revisions to ~30% for full-year average from prior 25%. Sustained primary fiscal surplus and monetary restraint support sub-30% bets, but inertia and global energy risks favor higher bins; April CPI release on May 14 holds potential to shift sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado35–39.9% 16.6%
40-44,9% 12.6%
45%+ 12.3%
25-29,9% 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ene 2027
<20%
9%
20-24,9%
23%
25-29,9%
24%
30.0-34.9%
16%
35–39.9%
17%
40-44,9%
13%
45%+
12%
35–39.9% 16.6%
40-44,9% 12.6%
45%+ 12.3%
25-29,9% 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ene 2027
<20%
$2,452 Vol.
9%
20-24,9%
$1,396 Vol.
23%
25-29,9%
$1,449 Vol.
24%
30.0-34.9%
$814 Vol.
16%
35–39.9%
$851 Vol.
17%
40-44,9%
$889 Vol.
13%
45%+
$1,027 Vol.
12%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a fragmented consensus for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with the 25-29.9% bin leading at 22.5% implied probability amid closely contested outcomes around 20-40%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% monthly CPI—the year's highest—pushing year-to-date accumulation to 9.4% and YoY to 32.6%, driven by education costs, fuel hikes tied to Middle East tensions, and regulated price adjustments, prompting IMF and Reuters poll revisions to ~30% for full-year average from prior 25%. Sustained primary fiscal surplus and monetary restraint support sub-30% bets, but inertia and global energy risks favor higher bins; April CPI release on May 14 holds potential to shift sentiment.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volumen
$8,879Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a fragmented consensus for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with the 25-29.9% bin leading at 22.5% implied probability amid closely contested outcomes around 20-40%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% monthly CPI—the year's highest—pushing year-to-date accumulation to 9.4% and YoY to 32.6%, driven by education costs, fuel hikes tied to Middle East tensions, and regulated price adjustments, prompting IMF and Reuters poll revisions to ~30% for full-year average from prior 25%. Sustained primary fiscal surplus and monetary restraint support sub-30% bets, but inertia and global energy risks favor higher bins; April CPI release on May 14 holds potential to shift sentiment.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$8,879Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a fragmented consensus for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with the 25-29.9% bin leading at 22.5% implied probability amid closely contested outcomes around 20-40%, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity. March 2026 INDEC data showed 3.4% monthly CPI—the year's highest—pushing year-to-date accumulation to 9.4% and YoY to 32.6%, driven by education costs, fuel hikes tied to Middle East tensions, and regulated price adjustments, prompting IMF and Reuters poll revisions to ~30% for full-year average from prior 25%. Sustained primary fiscal surplus and monetary restraint support sub-30% bets, but inertia and global energy risks favor higher bins; April CPI release on May 14 holds potential to shift sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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