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icon for ¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?

¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?

¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?

Sí

8% probabilidad
Polymarket

$126,657 Vol.

Sí

8% probabilidad
Polymarket

$126,657 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no EU withdrawal before 2027 at 92.5%, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 or scheduling exit referendums amid high economic barriers for net beneficiaries like Poland and Hungary. Recent Polexit speculation peaked in March 2026 when Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a "real threat" tied to disputes over EU loans and nationalist pressures, with polls showing around 25% support, but fact-checks and Tusk's vows to block it quickly quelled momentum. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán reiterated in January that Hungary would stay as the EU faces internal strains. Right-wing gains in France, Germany, and Italy fuel Euroskepticism, yet constitutional hurdles, coalition dynamics, and short timelines make exits improbable without seismic shifts like snap elections or scandals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$126,657
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no EU withdrawal before 2027 at 92.5%, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 or scheduling exit referendums amid high economic barriers for net beneficiaries like Poland and Hungary. Recent Polexit speculation peaked in March 2026 when Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a "real threat" tied to disputes over EU loans and nationalist pressures, with polls showing around 25% support, but fact-checks and Tusk's vows to block it quickly quelled momentum. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán reiterated in January that Hungary would stay as the EU faces internal strains. Right-wing gains in France, Germany, and Italy fuel Euroskepticism, yet constitutional hurdles, coalition dynamics, and short timelines make exits improbable without seismic shifts like snap elections or scandals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$126,657
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" con 8%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 8¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 8% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" ha generado $126.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 8, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" es "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" con solo 8%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.