Recent MRP polling models, including PollCheck's ward-level projections updated with April candidate lists and Electoral Calculus' analysis, position Reform UK to win the most councillors nationally on May 7 across 136 English councils, with estimates of 1,379 seats versus Labour's 1,135 amid first-past-the-post dynamics favoring Reform's 26% vote share lead over Labour's 17%. This surge reflects Labour's plummeting approval (-47% net government rating) and Starmer's -45 favorability, driving disaffected voters to Reform in northern metropolitan boroughs and outer London like Havering and Barking and Dagenham. Trader consensus at 97% implied probability underscores this momentum, though a late polling swing, tactical voting for Conservatives or Liberal Democrats, or election-day factors like turnout could challenge the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones locales de 2026 en el Reino Unido: Ganador del partido
Elecciones locales de 2026 en el Reino Unido: Ganador del partido
Reform 96.8%
Green 1.8%
Labour 1.6%
Conservative <1%
$150,125 Vol.
$150,125 Vol.
7 may 2026
Reform
97%
Green
2%
Labour
2%
Conservative
1%
Liberal Democrats
<1%
Reform 96.8%
Green 1.8%
Labour 1.6%
Conservative <1%
$150,125 Vol.
$150,125 Vol.
7 may 2026
Reform
$52,833 Vol.
97%
Green
$47,551 Vol.
2%
Labour
$24,705 Vol.
2%
Conservative
$13,490 Vol.
1%
Liberal Democrats
$11,546 Vol.
<1%
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Recent MRP polling models, including PollCheck's ward-level projections updated with April candidate lists and Electoral Calculus' analysis, position Reform UK to win the most councillors nationally on May 7 across 136 English councils, with estimates of 1,379 seats versus Labour's 1,135 amid first-past-the-post dynamics favoring Reform's 26% vote share lead over Labour's 17%. This surge reflects Labour's plummeting approval (-47% net government rating) and Starmer's -45 favorability, driving disaffected voters to Reform in northern metropolitan boroughs and outer London like Havering and Barking and Dagenham. Trader consensus at 97% implied probability underscores this momentum, though a late polling swing, tactical voting for Conservatives or Liberal Democrats, or election-day factors like turnout could challenge the outcome.
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volumen
$150,125Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Recent MRP polling models, including PollCheck's ward-level projections updated with April candidate lists and Electoral Calculus' analysis, position Reform UK to win the most councillors nationally on May 7 across 136 English councils, with estimates of 1,379 seats versus Labour's 1,135 amid first-past-the-post dynamics favoring Reform's 26% vote share lead over Labour's 17%. This surge reflects Labour's plummeting approval (-47% net government rating) and Starmer's -45 favorability, driving disaffected voters to Reform in northern metropolitan boroughs and outer London like Havering and Barking and Dagenham. Trader consensus at 97% implied probability underscores this momentum, though a late polling swing, tactical voting for Conservatives or Liberal Democrats, or election-day factors like turnout could challenge the outcome.
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volumen
$150,125Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MRP polling models, including PollCheck's ward-level projections updated with April candidate lists and Electoral Calculus' analysis, position Reform UK to win the most councillors nationally on May 7 across 136 English councils, with estimates of 1,379 seats versus Labour's 1,135 amid first-past-the-post dynamics favoring Reform's 26% vote share lead over Labour's 17%. This surge reflects Labour's plummeting approval (-47% net government rating) and Starmer's -45 favorability, driving disaffected voters to Reform in northern metropolitan boroughs and outer London like Havering and Barking and Dagenham. Trader consensus at 97% implied probability underscores this momentum, though a late polling swing, tactical voting for Conservatives or Liberal Democrats, or election-day factors like turnout could challenge the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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