xAI's Grok models trail frontier leaders on the FrontierMath benchmark, which tests advanced AI capabilities on unsolved research-level math problems, with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants topping scores at 40-48% on recent leaderboards while Grok-4 managed only 2-20% in 2025 Epoch AI evaluations. Recent xAI developments emphasize multimodal expansions like Grok Voice Think Fast 1.0 (April 23, 2026) and improved image generation, rather than math-specific advances, but Elon Musk announced Grok 4.4 (1 trillion parameters) for early May and 4.5 (1.5T) by late May, leveraging Colossus supercluster scaling that could boost reasoning performance. Traders monitor these releases and independent Epoch evals ahead of the June 30 deadline, as historical scaling trends suggest potential gains but no guarantees against persistent math gaps versus OpenAI and Google.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,502 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
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$19,502 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models trail frontier leaders on the FrontierMath benchmark, which tests advanced AI capabilities on unsolved research-level math problems, with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants topping scores at 40-48% on recent leaderboards while Grok-4 managed only 2-20% in 2025 Epoch AI evaluations. Recent xAI developments emphasize multimodal expansions like Grok Voice Think Fast 1.0 (April 23, 2026) and improved image generation, rather than math-specific advances, but Elon Musk announced Grok 4.4 (1 trillion parameters) for early May and 4.5 (1.5T) by late May, leveraging Colossus supercluster scaling that could boost reasoning performance. Traders monitor these releases and independent Epoch evals ahead of the June 30 deadline, as historical scaling trends suggest potential gains but no guarantees against persistent math gaps versus OpenAI and Google.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$19,502End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models trail frontier leaders on the FrontierMath benchmark, which tests advanced AI capabilities on unsolved research-level math problems, with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants topping scores at 40-48% on recent leaderboards while Grok-4 managed only 2-20% in 2025 Epoch AI evaluations. Recent xAI developments emphasize multimodal expansions like Grok Voice Think Fast 1.0 (April 23, 2026) and improved image generation, rather than math-specific advances, but Elon Musk announced Grok 4.4 (1 trillion parameters) for early May and 4.5 (1.5T) by late May, leveraging Colossus supercluster scaling that could boost reasoning performance. Traders monitor these releases and independent Epoch evals ahead of the June 30 deadline, as historical scaling trends suggest potential gains but no guarantees against persistent math gaps versus OpenAI and Google.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,502End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok models trail frontier leaders on the FrontierMath benchmark, which tests advanced AI capabilities on unsolved research-level math problems, with OpenAI's GPT-5 variants topping scores at 40-48% on recent leaderboards while Grok-4 managed only 2-20% in 2025 Epoch AI evaluations. Recent xAI developments emphasize multimodal expansions like Grok Voice Think Fast 1.0 (April 23, 2026) and improved image generation, rather than math-specific advances, but Elon Musk announced Grok 4.4 (1 trillion parameters) for early May and 4.5 (1.5T) by late May, leveraging Colossus supercluster scaling that could boost reasoning performance. Traders monitor these releases and independent Epoch evals ahead of the June 30 deadline, as historical scaling trends suggest potential gains but no guarantees against persistent math gaps versus OpenAI and Google.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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