xAI's Grok models trail leaders like GPT-5.5 Pro (87.8%) on Epoch AI's updated FrontierMath Tiers 1-4 benchmark, which tests research-level math problems with recent error fixes leaving 338 items total. Older public Grok 4 evaluations showed scores around 14%, while competitors leverage heavy compute, Python tooling, and multi-agent setups for gains up to the mid-80s. No major Grok foundation-model release has occurred since the 4.x series, and xAI's June 2026 focus remains on agentic tools like Grok Build 0.1 rather than immediate math fine-tuning. With only 16 days until the June 30 resolution, traders see limited scope for a sudden leap unless an unannounced variant or inference tweak materializes, keeping odds sensitive to any credible leak on internal progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,913 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
25%+
56%
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51%
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60%
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49%
$21,913 Vol.
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$5,920 Vol.
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$12,904 Vol.
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$2,920 Vol.
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$170 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models trail leaders like GPT-5.5 Pro (87.8%) on Epoch AI's updated FrontierMath Tiers 1-4 benchmark, which tests research-level math problems with recent error fixes leaving 338 items total. Older public Grok 4 evaluations showed scores around 14%, while competitors leverage heavy compute, Python tooling, and multi-agent setups for gains up to the mid-80s. No major Grok foundation-model release has occurred since the 4.x series, and xAI's June 2026 focus remains on agentic tools like Grok Build 0.1 rather than immediate math fine-tuning. With only 16 days until the June 30 resolution, traders see limited scope for a sudden leap unless an unannounced variant or inference tweak materializes, keeping odds sensitive to any credible leak on internal progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$21,913End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models trail leaders like GPT-5.5 Pro (87.8%) on Epoch AI's updated FrontierMath Tiers 1-4 benchmark, which tests research-level math problems with recent error fixes leaving 338 items total. Older public Grok 4 evaluations showed scores around 14%, while competitors leverage heavy compute, Python tooling, and multi-agent setups for gains up to the mid-80s. No major Grok foundation-model release has occurred since the 4.x series, and xAI's June 2026 focus remains on agentic tools like Grok Build 0.1 rather than immediate math fine-tuning. With only 16 days until the June 30 resolution, traders see limited scope for a sudden leap unless an unannounced variant or inference tweak materializes, keeping odds sensitive to any credible leak on internal progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,913End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok models trail leaders like GPT-5.5 Pro (87.8%) on Epoch AI's updated FrontierMath Tiers 1-4 benchmark, which tests research-level math problems with recent error fixes leaving 338 items total. Older public Grok 4 evaluations showed scores around 14%, while competitors leverage heavy compute, Python tooling, and multi-agent setups for gains up to the mid-80s. No major Grok foundation-model release has occurred since the 4.x series, and xAI's June 2026 focus remains on agentic tools like Grok Build 0.1 rather than immediate math fine-tuning. With only 16 days until the June 30 resolution, traders see limited scope for a sudden leap unless an unannounced variant or inference tweak materializes, keeping odds sensitive to any credible leak on internal progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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