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Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?

$55,833 Vol.

30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$55,833 Vol.

Polymarket

June 15

$5,340 Vol.

52%

June 30

$1,943 Vol.

76%

September 30

$3,423 Vol.

91%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republicans control narrow majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, enabling use of the budget reconciliation process to advance spending priorities with simple majorities rather than facing filibusters. In late April 2026, the Senate and House adopted a concurrent budget resolution directing the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees to draft legislation providing up to $70 billion in additional funding for immigration enforcement by May 15. The Congressional Budget Office scored draft text in early May, estimating a $72 billion deficit impact over ten years. House passage would require near-unanimous Republican support given the slim margin, similar to the 215-214 vote on the prior major reconciliation package in 2025. No floor vote has occurred as of early June, leaving timing dependent on committee completion and leadership scheduling.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$55,833
Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
May 21, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republicans control narrow majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, enabling use of the budget reconciliation process to advance spending priorities with simple majorities rather than facing filibusters. In late April 2026, the Senate and House adopted a concurrent budget resolution directing the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees to draft legislation providing up to $70 billion in additional funding for immigration enforcement by May 15. The Congressional Budget Office scored draft text in early May, estimating a $72 billion deficit impact over ten years. House passage would require near-unanimous Republican support given the slim margin, similar to the 215-214 vote on the prior major reconciliation package in 2025. No floor vote has occurred as of early June, leaving timing dependent on committee completion and leadership scheduling.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$55,833
Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
May 21, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "September 30" con 91%, seguido de "June 30" con 77%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 91¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?" ha generado $55.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 21, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?" es "September 30" con 91%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "June 30" con 77%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.