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Política·Congreso

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Política·Congreso

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

NUEVO
31 may 2026
Polymarket

$181 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$106 Vol.

22%

May 22

$75 Vol.

56%

May 31

$0 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republicans advanced the FY2026 budget reconciliation process after the Senate adopted S.Con.Res. 33 on April 23 by a 50-48 party-line vote and the House approved the Senate version on April 30, setting instructions for committees to draft a narrow bill funding DHS agencies including ICE and CBP for immigration enforcement. This filibuster-proof path via simple majority addresses partial government shutdown risks without Democratic support, though Byrd Rule compliance limits non-budgetary provisions. GOP leaders face internal unity tests during committee markups and potential vote-a-rama amendments, with the Senate in recess until May 12 and floor passage timeline key to market resolution. Trader consensus reflects procedural progress amid narrow majorities and competing priorities like a possible second reconciliation package.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$181
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republicans advanced the FY2026 budget reconciliation process after the Senate adopted S.Con.Res. 33 on April 23 by a 50-48 party-line vote and the House approved the Senate version on April 30, setting instructions for committees to draft a narrow bill funding DHS agencies including ICE and CBP for immigration enforcement. This filibuster-proof path via simple majority addresses partial government shutdown risks without Democratic support, though Byrd Rule compliance limits non-budgetary provisions. GOP leaders face internal unity tests during committee markups and potential vote-a-rama amendments, with the Senate in recess until May 12 and floor passage timeline key to market resolution. Trader consensus reflects procedural progress amid narrow majorities and competing priorities like a possible second reconciliation package.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$181
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "May 22" con 56%, seguido de "May 31" con 51%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 56¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el May 4, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" es "May 22" con 56%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "May 31" con 51%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.