Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by recent reports of Anthropic's accelerated preparations, including early discussions for an October 2026 listing potentially raising $60 billion via banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, amid its surging $380 billion private valuation and enterprise revenue outpacing OpenAI's annual recurring revenue. OpenAI, valued at $852 billion post-$122 billion funding, faces headwinds from CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline, missed revenue targets, and massive $121 billion compute spending projections leading to prolonged losses. Secondary markets now favor Anthropic shares, with investor sentiment flipping amid OpenAI's perceived strategic distractions; watch for S-1 filings or regulatory updates as key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
$53,300 Vol.
$53,300 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
$53,300 Vol.
$53,300 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by recent reports of Anthropic's accelerated preparations, including early discussions for an October 2026 listing potentially raising $60 billion via banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, amid its surging $380 billion private valuation and enterprise revenue outpacing OpenAI's annual recurring revenue. OpenAI, valued at $852 billion post-$122 billion funding, faces headwinds from CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline, missed revenue targets, and massive $121 billion compute spending projections leading to prolonged losses. Secondary markets now favor Anthropic shares, with investor sentiment flipping amid OpenAI's perceived strategic distractions; watch for S-1 filings or regulatory updates as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$53,300End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by recent reports of Anthropic's accelerated preparations, including early discussions for an October 2026 listing potentially raising $60 billion via banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, amid its surging $380 billion private valuation and enterprise revenue outpacing OpenAI's annual recurring revenue. OpenAI, valued at $852 billion post-$122 billion funding, faces headwinds from CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline, missed revenue targets, and massive $121 billion compute spending projections leading to prolonged losses. Secondary markets now favor Anthropic shares, with investor sentiment flipping amid OpenAI's perceived strategic distractions; watch for S-1 filings or regulatory updates as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$53,300End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by recent reports of Anthropic's accelerated preparations, including early discussions for an October 2026 listing potentially raising $60 billion via banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, amid its surging $380 billion private valuation and enterprise revenue outpacing OpenAI's annual recurring revenue. OpenAI, valued at $852 billion post-$122 billion funding, faces headwinds from CFO Sarah Friar's public concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline, missed revenue targets, and massive $121 billion compute spending projections leading to prolonged losses. Secondary markets now favor Anthropic shares, with investor sentiment flipping amid OpenAI's perceived strategic distractions; watch for S-1 filings or regulatory updates as key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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