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Tech·Claude 5

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

icon for Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Tech·Claude 5

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$361,868 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$361,868 Vol.

Polymarket

45%+

$162,525 Vol.

48%

50%+

$31,716 Vol.

29%

55%+

$25,717 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.**Claude variants currently lead the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 (adaptive reasoning, max effort) at 53.3% and related models like Mythos 5 or Opus 4.8 variants reaching 45–64.5% under optimized settings.** This frontier benchmark comprises 2,500 expert-vetted, graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities, created by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI to resist saturation. Recent gains stem from Anthropic’s iterative releases and techniques such as extended thinking, tool use (web search, code execution), and fallback mechanisms, which have outpaced GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews. With the June 30 resolution date only weeks away, traders are watching for any final Claude updates or configuration tweaks that could push scores higher before cutoff. Historical patterns show Anthropic frequently refines reasoning modes quickly, though major capability jumps often require new model versions rather than incremental tuning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$361,868
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.**Claude variants currently lead the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 (adaptive reasoning, max effort) at 53.3% and related models like Mythos 5 or Opus 4.8 variants reaching 45–64.5% under optimized settings.** This frontier benchmark comprises 2,500 expert-vetted, graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities, created by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI to resist saturation. Recent gains stem from Anthropic’s iterative releases and techniques such as extended thinking, tool use (web search, code execution), and fallback mechanisms, which have outpaced GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews. With the June 30 resolution date only weeks away, traders are watching for any final Claude updates or configuration tweaks that could push scores higher before cutoff. Historical patterns show Anthropic frequently refines reasoning modes quickly, though major capability jumps often require new model versions rather than incremental tuning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$361,868
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30%+" at 100%, followed by "35%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" has generated $361.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is "30%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.