This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate Banking Committee advanced President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair on a 13-11 party-line vote on April 29, positioning him one step from full Senate confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Traders' overwhelming consensus at 99.2% reflects Warsh's prior Fed governorship experience, smooth confirmation hearing testimony pledging central bank independence, and Republican Senate majority control, with potential Democratic support from Sen. Fetterman offsetting opposition like Sen. Warren's. While procedural holds or unexpected bipartisan resistance could delay or derail, historical Fed chair confirmations rarely falter post-committee, underscoring the low-risk path ahead.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair on a 13-11 party-line vote on April 29, positioning him one step from full Senate confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Traders' overwhelming consensus at 99.2% reflects Warsh's prior Fed governorship experience, smooth confirmation hearing testimony pledging central bank independence, and Republican Senate majority control, with potential Democratic support from Sen. Fetterman offsetting opposition like Sen. Warren's. While procedural holds or unexpected bipartisan resistance could delay or derail, historical Fed chair confirmations rarely falter post-committee, underscoring the low-risk path ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 29 2026
Fed meeting confirms Jerome Powell will likely step down as Chair in May 2026;
no indication of Bowman as successor, keeping her market
Apr 26 2026
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee
Kevin Warsh jumps to 99%5%
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee approval and a full Senate vote
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets about his suitability and advanced his confirmation prospects
Mar 31 2026
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair confirmation news
Mar 18 2026
Reports emerge that Warsh’s nomination is stalled due to Senate hold by Sen.
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Thom Tillis and missing financial disclosure paperwork, raising uncertainty about the confirmation timeline and causing market hesitation
Mar 17 2026
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Michelle Bowman rises to 3%1%
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Mar 12 2026
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Michelle Bowman rises to 2%2%
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Mar 4 2026
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political opposition from Senator Thom Tillis who vowed to block nominees until the DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate Banking Committee advanced President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair on a 13-11 party-line vote on April 29, positioning him one step from full Senate confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Traders' overwhelming consensus at 99.2% reflects Warsh's prior Fed governorship experience, smooth confirmation hearing testimony pledging central bank independence, and Republican Senate majority control, with potential Democratic support from Sen. Fetterman offsetting opposition like Sen. Warren's. While procedural holds or unexpected bipartisan resistance could delay or derail, historical Fed chair confirmations rarely falter post-committee, underscoring the low-risk path ahead.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair on a 13-11 party-line vote on April 29, positioning him one step from full Senate confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Traders' overwhelming consensus at 99.2% reflects Warsh's prior Fed governorship experience, smooth confirmation hearing testimony pledging central bank independence, and Republican Senate majority control, with potential Democratic support from Sen. Fetterman offsetting opposition like Sen. Warren's. While procedural holds or unexpected bipartisan resistance could delay or derail, historical Fed chair confirmations rarely falter post-committee, underscoring the low-risk path ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 29 2026
Fed meeting confirms Jerome Powell will likely step down as Chair in May 2026;
no indication of Bowman as successor, keeping her market
Apr 26 2026
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee
Kevin Warsh jumps to 99%5%
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee approval and a full Senate vote
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets about his suitability and advanced his confirmation prospects
Mar 31 2026
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair confirmation news
Mar 18 2026
Reports emerge that Warsh’s nomination is stalled due to Senate hold by Sen.
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Thom Tillis and missing financial disclosure paperwork, raising uncertainty about the confirmation timeline and causing market hesitation
Mar 17 2026
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Michelle Bowman rises to 3%1%
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Mar 12 2026
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Michelle Bowman rises to 2%2%
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Mar 4 2026
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political opposition from Senator Thom Tillis who vowed to block nominees until the DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved
"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 99%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" has generated $49.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is "Kevin Warsh" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $49.5 million traded on “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 99¢ for "Kevin Warsh" in the "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 99% chance that "Kevin Warsh" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 99¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 1¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Oct 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market has an active community of 91 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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Frequently Asked Questions