This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Switzerland's strong position reflects its established role as a neutral venue for indirect US-Iran talks, including recent sessions in Geneva mediated by Oman, alongside its formal offer to host a potential signing ceremony for any framework agreement. Qatar's secondary standing stems from its active mediation efforts in the current round of negotiations amid broader regional involvement by Gulf states. The low probability assigned to no meeting by June 30 aligns with reports of ongoing diplomatic momentum toward a memorandum of understanding, though uncertainty persists over exact timing and format, whether in-person or remote. Other locations remain marginal due to limited recent involvement in facilitating contacts between the two sides.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Switzerland's strong position reflects its established role as a neutral venue for indirect US-Iran talks, including recent sessions in Geneva mediated by Oman, alongside its formal offer to host a potential signing ceremony for any framework agreement. Qatar's secondary standing stems from its active mediation efforts in the current round of negotiations amid broader regional involvement by Gulf states. The low probability assigned to no meeting by June 30 aligns with reports of ongoing diplomatic momentum toward a memorandum of understanding, though uncertainty persists over exact timing and format, whether in-person or remote. Other locations remain marginal due to limited recent involvement in facilitating contacts between the two sides.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Jun 14 2026
US and Iran agree to sign ceasefire framework in Geneva
Switzerland surges to 70%45%
On June 14, 2026, reports indicated that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a historic diplomatic meeting. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location, with prices jumping significantly.
Jun 12 2026
Iran publishes 14-point Memorandum of Understanding draft with US
No Meeting by June 30 surges to 24%17%
On June 12, 2026, Iran publicly released a 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding it was negotiating with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and nuclear talks framework. This transparency indicated growing momentum toward a potential agreement but did not confirm an imminent meeting location.
May 29 2026
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
No Meeting by June 30 drops to 33%8%
President Trump concluded a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings and causing market skepticism.
May 28 2026
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
Pakistan surges to 65%19%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on a preliminary MOU to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, though final approval by President Trump was pending. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings.
May 23 2026
Trump says Iran peace deal largely negotiated, meeting with US negotiators planned
Pakistan jumps to 65%12%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to decide on Iran's ceasefire proposal, signaling potential progress and boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in Pakistan.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces significant progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 16%15%
President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling a breakthrough in talks. This boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland, with prices for Switzerland rising and Pakistan declining.
May 23 2026
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan jumps to 66%13%
President Trump announced on May 23, 2026, that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings and peace talks, reflecting significant progress in negotiations.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces near agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Switzerland rises to 5%2%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates, especially increasing optimism for Switzerland and Qatar as meeting locations.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland jumps to 14%13%
Trump's announcement of significant progress and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted optimism for diplomatic meetings, particularly increasing confidence in Switzerland as the venue.
May 23 2026
US and Iranian officials suggest nearing framework agreement after Qatar and Pakistan mediation
Qatar rises to 8%2%
Following talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Tehran, US and Iranian officials indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, briefly increasing optimism for future diplomatic meetings and slightly boosting Qatar's market price.
Apr 28 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 38%29%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in near-term diplomatic meetings in Pakistan.
Apr 24 2026
US lead negotiators Kushner and Witkoff travel to Pakistan for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US lead negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. This maintained market interest in Pakistan as a meeting location despite some Iranian officials denying planned meetings there.
Apr 24 2026
US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting in Pakistan, indicating ongoing uncertainty about the meeting location and progress.
Apr 20 2026
Reports confirm second round of US-Iran talks planned in Islamabad
Pakistan rises to 67%3%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet again in Islamabad, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and the market's initial high probability for Pakistan as meeting location.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran to advance peace talks
Pakistan rises to 64%2%
Pakistani mediators intensified diplomatic efforts with a key visit to Tehran, signaling Pakistan's central role and supporting market confidence in Pakistan as the next meeting venue.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to discuss second round of talks
Pakistan jumps to 62%5%
Pakistan's military chief led a delegation to Tehran to deliver a new message from Washington and discuss launching a second round of US-Iran talks, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and sustaining market interest in Islamabad as the next meeting site.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats consider Islamabad and Geneva for second round of US-Iran talks
Pakistan drops to 57%6%
After the blockade, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a second round of talks, with Islamabad and Geneva as potential venues. This speculation caused some price movement, with Islamabad remaining favored but Geneva gaining slight attention.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats discuss second round of US-Iran talks with Islamabad and Geneva as possible venues
Pakistan plunges to 62%24%
Following the initial talks, diplomats considered a second round of negotiations potentially in Islamabad or Geneva, sustaining market interest in Pakistan and Switzerland as meeting locations.
Apr 13 2026
Discussions underway for second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad or Geneva
Pakistan dips to 83%3%
Following the initial talks, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a new round of peace talks, with Islamabad and Geneva considered as possible venues, sustaining market interest in Pakistan.
Apr 13 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after Islamabad talks fail
Pakistan plunges to 63%20%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, US President Donald Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic prospects. This event caused a drop in Pakistan's market price and increased uncertainty about future meeting locations.
Apr 13 2026
US officials discuss potential second in-person meeting with Iran before ceasefire expiry
Pakistan plunges to 62%25%
Following the Islamabad Talks, US officials considered a second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expired on April 21, raising hopes for continued diplomacy and influencing market prices.
Apr 12 2026
US military announces naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 69%18%
Following the failure of the Islamabad talks to reach an agreement, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and reducing optimism for immediate diplomatic progress. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term meetings in Pakistan and other venues.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Switzerland's strong position reflects its established role as a neutral venue for indirect US-Iran talks, including recent sessions in Geneva mediated by Oman, alongside its formal offer to host a potential signing ceremony for any framework agreement. Qatar's secondary standing stems from its active mediation efforts in the current round of negotiations amid broader regional involvement by Gulf states. The low probability assigned to no meeting by June 30 aligns with reports of ongoing diplomatic momentum toward a memorandum of understanding, though uncertainty persists over exact timing and format, whether in-person or remote. Other locations remain marginal due to limited recent involvement in facilitating contacts between the two sides.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Switzerland's strong position reflects its established role as a neutral venue for indirect US-Iran talks, including recent sessions in Geneva mediated by Oman, alongside its formal offer to host a potential signing ceremony for any framework agreement. Qatar's secondary standing stems from its active mediation efforts in the current round of negotiations amid broader regional involvement by Gulf states. The low probability assigned to no meeting by June 30 aligns with reports of ongoing diplomatic momentum toward a memorandum of understanding, though uncertainty persists over exact timing and format, whether in-person or remote. Other locations remain marginal due to limited recent involvement in facilitating contacts between the two sides.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Jun 14 2026
US and Iran agree to sign ceasefire framework in Geneva
Switzerland surges to 70%45%
On June 14, 2026, reports indicated that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a historic diplomatic meeting. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location, with prices jumping significantly.
Jun 12 2026
Iran publishes 14-point Memorandum of Understanding draft with US
No Meeting by June 30 surges to 24%17%
On June 12, 2026, Iran publicly released a 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding it was negotiating with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and nuclear talks framework. This transparency indicated growing momentum toward a potential agreement but did not confirm an imminent meeting location.
May 29 2026
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
No Meeting by June 30 drops to 33%8%
President Trump concluded a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings and causing market skepticism.
May 28 2026
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
Pakistan surges to 65%19%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on a preliminary MOU to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, though final approval by President Trump was pending. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings.
May 23 2026
Trump says Iran peace deal largely negotiated, meeting with US negotiators planned
Pakistan jumps to 65%12%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to decide on Iran's ceasefire proposal, signaling potential progress and boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in Pakistan.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces significant progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 16%15%
President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling a breakthrough in talks. This boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland, with prices for Switzerland rising and Pakistan declining.
May 23 2026
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan jumps to 66%13%
President Trump announced on May 23, 2026, that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings and peace talks, reflecting significant progress in negotiations.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces near agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Switzerland rises to 5%2%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates, especially increasing optimism for Switzerland and Qatar as meeting locations.
May 23 2026
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland jumps to 14%13%
Trump's announcement of significant progress and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted optimism for diplomatic meetings, particularly increasing confidence in Switzerland as the venue.
May 23 2026
US and Iranian officials suggest nearing framework agreement after Qatar and Pakistan mediation
Qatar rises to 8%2%
Following talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Tehran, US and Iranian officials indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, briefly increasing optimism for future diplomatic meetings and slightly boosting Qatar's market price.
Apr 28 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 38%29%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in near-term diplomatic meetings in Pakistan.
Apr 24 2026
US lead negotiators Kushner and Witkoff travel to Pakistan for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US lead negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. This maintained market interest in Pakistan as a meeting location despite some Iranian officials denying planned meetings there.
Apr 24 2026
US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting in Pakistan, indicating ongoing uncertainty about the meeting location and progress.
Apr 20 2026
Reports confirm second round of US-Iran talks planned in Islamabad
Pakistan rises to 67%3%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet again in Islamabad, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and the market's initial high probability for Pakistan as meeting location.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran to advance peace talks
Pakistan rises to 64%2%
Pakistani mediators intensified diplomatic efforts with a key visit to Tehran, signaling Pakistan's central role and supporting market confidence in Pakistan as the next meeting venue.
Apr 15 2026
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to discuss second round of talks
Pakistan jumps to 62%5%
Pakistan's military chief led a delegation to Tehran to deliver a new message from Washington and discuss launching a second round of US-Iran talks, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and sustaining market interest in Islamabad as the next meeting site.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats consider Islamabad and Geneva for second round of US-Iran talks
Pakistan drops to 57%6%
After the blockade, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a second round of talks, with Islamabad and Geneva as potential venues. This speculation caused some price movement, with Islamabad remaining favored but Geneva gaining slight attention.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats discuss second round of US-Iran talks with Islamabad and Geneva as possible venues
Pakistan plunges to 62%24%
Following the initial talks, diplomats considered a second round of negotiations potentially in Islamabad or Geneva, sustaining market interest in Pakistan and Switzerland as meeting locations.
Apr 13 2026
Discussions underway for second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad or Geneva
Pakistan dips to 83%3%
Following the initial talks, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a new round of peace talks, with Islamabad and Geneva considered as possible venues, sustaining market interest in Pakistan.
Apr 13 2026
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after Islamabad talks fail
Pakistan plunges to 63%20%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, US President Donald Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic prospects. This event caused a drop in Pakistan's market price and increased uncertainty about future meeting locations.
Apr 13 2026
US officials discuss potential second in-person meeting with Iran before ceasefire expiry
Pakistan plunges to 62%25%
Following the Islamabad Talks, US officials considered a second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expired on April 21, raising hopes for continued diplomacy and influencing market prices.
Apr 12 2026
US military announces naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 69%18%
Following the failure of the Islamabad talks to reach an agreement, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and reducing optimism for immediate diplomatic progress. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term meetings in Pakistan and other venues.
"Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Switzerland" at 70%, followed by "Qatar" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" has generated $9.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" is "Switzerland" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Qatar" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $9.9 million traded on “Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 70¢ for "Switzerland" in the "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 70% chance that "Switzerland" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 70¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 30¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?" market has an active community of 147 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions