Federal Reserve April 28-29 FOMC meeting held with market pricing showing 75.6% probability of no change;

↓ 2.75% drops to 18%13%

Fed remains divided on rate direction amid inflation persistence and employment risks; rate cuts expected later in 2026 if conditions improve

Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional Testimony and Economic Reports Reinforce “Higher for Longer” Rate Expectations Amid Persistent Inflation Risks; Market

↓ 2.5% dips to 11%4%

Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional Testimony and Economic Reports Reinforce “Higher for Longer” Rate Expectations Amid Persistent Inflation Risks; Market

Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and economic reports reinforce “higher for longer” rate expectations amid persistent inflation risks; market

↓ 2.5% dips to 11%4%

Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and economic reports reinforce “higher for longer” rate expectations amid persistent inflation risks; market

Market optimism returns as Fed Chair Powell emphasizes data-dependent approach and potential for gradual easing later in the year, supporting moderate

↓ 3.25% rises to 70%2%

Market optimism returns as Fed Chair Powell emphasizes data-dependent approach and potential for gradual easing later in the year, supporting moderate

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting in April 2026, with dissent from one governor who favored a 25 basis-point cut, confirming market

↑ 4.25% rises to 8%3%

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting in April 2026, with dissent from one governor who favored a 25 basis-point cut, confirming market expectations of no near-term hikes and keeping the probability of hitting 4.25% low

Continued economic strength and Fed statements indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts keep market pricing for the ↓ 2.25% outcome near historic lows, reflecting diminished

↓ 2.25% rises to 9%2%

Continued economic strength and Fed statements indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts keep market pricing for the ↓ 2.25% outcome near historic lows, reflecting diminished expectations for aggressive easing before end of 2026

Release of March 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes confirms Fed’s cautious stance with inflation above target and risks from Middle East conflict;

↓ 2.75% drops to 31%9%

majority expect rate cuts only if inflation declines; policy decisions remain data-dependent

| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 6%1%

| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |

Following the March spike, markets corrected downward as Fed communications emphasized data dependency and cautious approach to further hikes, reducing the odds of hitting 5.25%

↑ 5.25% plunges to 5%18%

Following the March spike, markets corrected downward as Fed communications emphasized data dependency and cautious approach to further hikes, reducing the odds of hitting 5.25% again

Market reacts to renewed hawkish signals from Fed officials and economic data suggesting inflation remains sticky, causing a sharp

↑ 5.25% surges to 23%20%

Market reacts to renewed hawkish signals from Fed officials and economic data suggesting inflation remains sticky, causing a sharp

Market reacts to mixed signals post-March FOMC, with some concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks (Iran war), causing a sharp drop in

↓ 3.25% drops to 77%14%

Market reacts to mixed signals post-March FOMC, with some concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks (Iran war), causing a sharp drop in

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March FOMC meeting;

↓ 2.75% plunges to 40%17%

minutes highlight inflation risks remain high, geopolitical tensions in Middle East add uncertainty; some participants see case for two-sided rate path including possible hikes or cuts

| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |

↓ 2.25% dips to 7%2%

| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |

FOMC meeting holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%, releases dot plot projecting one 25 basis point cut in 2026 and another in 2027;

↓ 3.25% dips to 91%1%

dissent by Stephen Miran for immediate cut; inflation and growth forecasts slightly increased, causing market to maintain high probability for rate cuts

FOMC meeting results in no change to the federal funds rate, with market consensus at nearly 100% for no change, supported by resilient economic data and inflation above target,

↓ 2.25% drops to 7%6%

FOMC meeting results in no change to the federal funds rate, with market consensus at nearly 100% for no change, supported by resilient economic data and inflation above target, further lowering the probability of a rate drop to 2.25%

Fed signals cautious approach in March meeting with no rate cuts and emphasizes data dependency; market

↓ 2.5% drops to 14%6%

Fed signals cautious approach in March meeting with no rate cuts and emphasizes data dependency; market

FOMC minutes and economic data show inflation progress slowing and labor market still strong;

↓ 2.5% drops to 19%9%

market reduces odds of rapid rate declines

Fed holds rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in January meeting, citing solid economic activity and inflation still elevated;

↓ 2.5% dips to 33%4%

market further lowers chances of steep rate cuts in near term

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January 2026, citing solid economic activity and stable labor market, signaling a pause in cuts and reducing odds of rates

↓ 2.25% dips to 15%1%

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January 2026, citing solid economic activity and stable labor market, signaling a pause in cuts and reducing odds of rates falling to 2.25%

FOMC meeting keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with some dissent favoring a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations of future easing

↓ 3.25% jumps to 93%5%

FOMC meeting keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with some dissent favoring a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations of future easing

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January FOMC meeting;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 57%8%

Chair Powell emphasizes cautious approach amid persistent inflation and labor market stabilization; no immediate cuts expected

| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |

↓ 2.25% dips to 9%2%

| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50–3.75% for the first time since July 2025, with Chair Powell noting improved economic outlook but inflation still above target;

↑ 5.25% dips to 2%4%

markets interpreted this as a sign that peak rates had passed, keeping downward pressure on ↑ 5.25% odds

Federal Reserve December meeting minutes reveal ongoing divergence among policymakers on rate path;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 49%5%

some see case for keeping rates steady after cut, others expect further easing if inflation declines; inflation risks remain elevated

Fed’s Beige Book and post-meeting commentary highlight a softening labor market and divided views on future policy, with some officials expecting no cuts or even hikes in 2026,

↓ 2.25% dips to 13%1%

Fed’s Beige Book and post-meeting commentary highlight a softening labor market and divided views on future policy, with some officials expecting no cuts or even hikes in 2026, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate declines

| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 11%3%

| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |

FOMC meeting confirms rate cut but highlights inflation still above target and a divided committee;

↓ 2.5% drops to 16%7%

market reacts to increased uncertainty about future cuts

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, but signals possible easing ahead due to inflation concerns, boosting market confidence in rate cuts

↓ 3.25% jumps to 88%6%

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, but signals possible easing ahead due to inflation concerns, boosting market confidence in rate cuts

Fed signaled a pause on rate cuts amid data uncertainty and leadership changes, contrasting with market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, reinforcing a slower easing path

↑ 4.25% dips to 5%3%

Fed signaled a pause on rate cuts amid data uncertainty and leadership changes, contrasting with market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, reinforcing a slower easing path and reducing chances of rates rising back to 4.25%

FOMC cuts rates by 0.25% to 3.50–3.75%, the third cut in 2025, but signals a more cautious outlook with fewer cuts than previously expected;

↓ 2.5% drops to 11%8%

Fed dot plot shows slower easing, causing market to reduce probability of reaching 2.5%

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, citing moderate economic growth but persistent inflation above target;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 44%6%

decision not unanimous, reflecting ongoing internal debate

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% target range in a sharply divided vote, signaling a pause on further cuts and projecting only one cut in

↑ 4.25% drops to 8%6%

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% target range in a sharply divided vote, signaling a pause on further cuts and projecting only one cut in 2026; this "hawkish cut" and cautious outlook caused a drop in the probability of rates reaching 4.25%

FOMC delivers third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.50–3.75%, amid concerns about a cooling labor market and inflation above target;

↑ 5.25% dips to 6%4%

the decision was split 9-3, highlighting internal Fed disagreements and increasing doubts about rates reaching 5.25% again

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive time in 2025 by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, but the decision was divided (9-3 vote) and accompanied by cautious language

↓ 2.25% dips to 14%4%

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive time in 2025 by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, but the decision was divided (9-3 vote) and accompanied by cautious language about future cuts, reflecting uncertainty and mixed economic signals

FOMC meeting held with the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00%, market begins pricing in potential rate cuts in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

FOMC meeting held with the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00%, market begins pricing in potential rate cuts in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

Market optimism surged as Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams and others signaled near-term rate cuts were likely, boosting expectations for a December

↑ 4.25% rises to 14%4%

Market optimism surged as Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams and others signaled near-term rate cuts were likely, boosting expectations for a December rate cut and pushing market odds for a 25 basis-point cut above 80%

Federal Reserve October FOMC minutes reveal divisions and signal likely pause in rate cuts for the rest of 2025, despite a 25 basis point cut to 3.75%-4.00% range;

↓ 2.75% drops to 38%12%

inflation remains elevated and downside risks to employment rise

Release of October FOMC minutes reveals strong division among Fed officials on whether to cut rates again in December, with some advocating caution due to persistent inflation,

↑ 5.25% rises to 10%3%

Release of October FOMC minutes reveals strong division among Fed officials on whether to cut rates again in December, with some advocating caution due to persistent inflation, causing market uncertainty and a temporary

FOMC minutes reveal strong disagreement among officials about a third rate cut in 2025, with some fearing inflation risks and others concerned about labor market weakness;

↓ 2.25% drops to 18%11%

this uncertainty caused market odds for further cuts to decline sharply

Several Fed policymakers opposed the November rate cut, expressing concern that inflation progress had stalled and longer-term inflation expectations could rise, highlighting

↑ 4.25% plunges to 10%40%

Several Fed policymakers opposed the November rate cut, expressing concern that inflation progress had stalled and longer-term inflation expectations could rise, highlighting internal Fed divisions and uncertainty about future rate hikes

U.S. Government Shutdown Delays Key Economic Data Releases, Raising Doubts About Fed’s Ability to Justify Aggressive Rate Cuts;

↓ 2.5% drops to 19%14%

Market Lowers Odds of Sharp Rate Declines

Government shutdown delays key economic data releases, raising doubts about the Fed’s ability to justify aggressive rate cuts;

↓ 2.5% drops to 19%14%

market lowers odds of sharp rate declines

FOMC cuts Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 4.50–4.75%, signaling more cuts ahead but at a cautious pace; market initially

↓ 2.5% plunges to 33%18%

FOMC cuts Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 4.50–4.75%, signaling more cuts ahead but at a cautious pace; market initially

Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%–4.75% amid balanced risks to employment and inflation, signaling ongoing but cautious easing after prior

↓ 2.25% plunges to 29%21%

Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%–4.75% amid balanced risks to employment and inflation, signaling ongoing but cautious easing after prior cuts in 2024

FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 4.50–4.75%, signaling further cuts but balanced risks to inflation and employment; market initially

↓ 2.5% plunges to 33%18%

FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 4.50–4.75%, signaling further cuts but balanced risks to inflation and employment; market initially

| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |

↓ 2.25% dips to 14%4%

| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |

| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |

↓ 2.25% drops to 18%9%

| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |

Continued Fed caution and stable economic data maintain low market probability for Fed rate falling to or below 3.0% by end of 2026

Continued Fed caution and stable economic data maintain low market probability for Fed rate falling to or below 3.0% by end of 2026

Market consolidates lower expectations for rate cuts as Fed signals no immediate moves and inflation remains above target, keeping ↓ 3.0% probability near 24%

↓ 3.0% dips to 23%1%

Market consolidates lower expectations for rate cuts as Fed signals no immediate moves and inflation remains above target, keeping ↓ 3.0% probability near 24%

Slight market rebound on speculation of possible future cuts amid economic uncertainties, but overall sentiment remains cautious

↓ 3.0% jumps to 38%7%

Slight market rebound on speculation of possible future cuts amid economic uncertainties, but overall sentiment remains cautious

Continued cautious Fed stance and economic data showing resilience lead to further decline in market expectations for rate cuts to 3.0%

↓ 3.0% dips to 31%2%

Continued cautious Fed stance and economic data showing resilience lead to further decline in market expectations for rate cuts to 3.0%

Market reacts to mixed signals from Fed officials and economic data, including inflation remaining above target and employment stabilizing, causing a sharp drop in ↓ 3.0%

↓ 3.0% plunges to 33%19%

Market reacts to mixed signals from Fed officials and economic data, including inflation remaining above target and employment stabilizing, causing a sharp drop in ↓ 3.0% probability

Fed holds rates steady for the first time since July 2025 at 3.50–3.75%, with a 10–2 vote, signaling a pause amid improving economic outlook and stable employment, reducing odds

↓ 3.0% drops to 74%9%

Fed holds rates steady for the first time since July 2025 at 3.50–3.75%, with a 10–2 vote, signaling a pause amid improving economic outlook and stable employment, reducing odds of further cuts to 3.0%

| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 27%3%

| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |

FOMC meeting minutes reveal expectations of slowing rate cuts in 2025 and highlight uncertainty due to delayed data and mixed economic signals, tempering enthusiasm for aggressive

↓ 3.0% dips to 79%2%

FOMC meeting minutes reveal expectations of slowing rate cuts in 2025 and highlight uncertainty due to delayed data and mixed economic signals, tempering enthusiasm for aggressive easing

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive meeting, lowering the target range to 3.50–3.75%, citing moderate economic growth and elevated inflation risks;

↑ 5.25% dips to 7%4%

uncertainty increased due to delayed government inflation and jobs data from the shutdown. This reinforced market expectations of a lower peak rate, pushing

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive meeting, lowering the target range to 3.50–3.75%, despite limited economic data due to a government shutdown.

↓ 3.0% jumps to 81%11%

The decision was divided but signaled ongoing easing, supporting the ↓ 3.0% scenario

| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |

↓ 2.25% dips to 30%4%

| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |

FOMC lowers Fed Funds Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.50–4.75%, marking the second consecutive cut in 2024 and signaling further cuts expected in 2025 to reach around 3.4% by

↓ 3.0% surges to 72%21%

FOMC lowers Fed Funds Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.50–4.75%, marking the second consecutive cut in 2024 and signaling further cuts expected in 2025 to reach around 3.4% by year-end. This confirmed market expectations and boosted the probability of ↓ 3.0% outcome

| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |

↓ 2.25% plunges to 34%16%

| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |

FOMC cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50–4.75%, marking the second consecutive cut in 2024 and signaling a dovish stance amid balanced risks to the economy.

↑ 5.25% plunges to 11%39%

This initiated a sharp drop in market odds for ↑ 5.25% as rate cuts suggested lower peak rates ahead