Polymarket traders have locked in 100% implied probability on US real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% for Q1 2026 following the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, confirming 2.0% annualized growth—a sharp rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace. This consensus, backed by substantial capital, reflects robust contributions from gross private domestic investment (up sharply on AI-fueled equipment and software spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures (led by health care services), and federal nondefense outlays, tempered by rising imports. Below prior economist forecasts of 2.3%, the figure aligns precisely with the market's leading bin. Realistic challenges are minimal absent an immediate BEA data correction, with the second estimate due May 28 unlikely to affect resolution on the advance figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS GDP growth in Q1 2026?
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
2.0–2.5% 100.0%
<1.0% <1%
1.0–1.5% <1%
1.5–2.0% <1%
$497,682 Vol.
$497,682 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.5%
<1%
1.5–2.0%
<1%
2.0–2.5%
100%
2.5–3.0%
<1%
3.0–3.5%
<1%
≥3.5%
<1%
2.0–2.5% 100.0%
<1.0% <1%
1.0–1.5% <1%
1.5–2.0% <1%
$497,682 Vol.
$497,682 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
$60,289 Vol.
<1%
1.0–1.5%
$25,624 Vol.
<1%
1.5–2.0%
$50,271 Vol.
<1%
2.0–2.5%
$75,257 Vol.
100%
2.5–3.0%
$45,698 Vol.
<1%
3.0–3.5%
$136,403 Vol.
<1%
≥3.5%
$105,716 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders have locked in 100% implied probability on US real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% for Q1 2026 following the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, confirming 2.0% annualized growth—a sharp rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace. This consensus, backed by substantial capital, reflects robust contributions from gross private domestic investment (up sharply on AI-fueled equipment and software spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures (led by health care services), and federal nondefense outlays, tempered by rising imports. Below prior economist forecasts of 2.3%, the figure aligns precisely with the market's leading bin. Realistic challenges are minimal absent an immediate BEA data correction, with the second estimate due May 28 unlikely to affect resolution on the advance figure.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$497,682End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders have locked in 100% implied probability on US real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% for Q1 2026 following the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, confirming 2.0% annualized growth—a sharp rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace. This consensus, backed by substantial capital, reflects robust contributions from gross private domestic investment (up sharply on AI-fueled equipment and software spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures (led by health care services), and federal nondefense outlays, tempered by rising imports. Below prior economist forecasts of 2.3%, the figure aligns precisely with the market's leading bin. Realistic challenges are minimal absent an immediate BEA data correction, with the second estimate due May 28 unlikely to affect resolution on the advance figure.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$497,682End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Polymarket traders have locked in 100% implied probability on US real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% for Q1 2026 following the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, confirming 2.0% annualized growth—a sharp rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace. This consensus, backed by substantial capital, reflects robust contributions from gross private domestic investment (up sharply on AI-fueled equipment and software spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures (led by health care services), and federal nondefense outlays, tempered by rising imports. Below prior economist forecasts of 2.3%, the figure aligns precisely with the market's leading bin. Realistic challenges are minimal absent an immediate BEA data correction, with the second estimate due May 28 unlikely to affect resolution on the advance figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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