Ongoing hostilities and unresolved core disputes continue to shape trader expectations against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in early 2026, including sessions in Geneva and the UAE, produced prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires but stalled over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russia has signaled no deadlines or rush to compromise on its maximalist demands, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional ceasefires have been rejected. Active fighting, including Russian missile and drone strikes and incremental frontline advances into mid-2026, underscores the absence of diplomatic momentum sufficient for a binding deal. These dynamics align with the 72.5% implied probability on no agreement before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,234,199 Vol.
$2,234,199 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$2,234,199 Vol.
$2,234,199 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing hostilities and unresolved core disputes continue to shape trader expectations against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in early 2026, including sessions in Geneva and the UAE, produced prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires but stalled over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russia has signaled no deadlines or rush to compromise on its maximalist demands, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional ceasefires have been rejected. Active fighting, including Russian missile and drone strikes and incremental frontline advances into mid-2026, underscores the absence of diplomatic momentum sufficient for a binding deal. These dynamics align with the 72.5% implied probability on no agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,234,199End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing hostilities and unresolved core disputes continue to shape trader expectations against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in early 2026, including sessions in Geneva and the UAE, produced prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires but stalled over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russia has signaled no deadlines or rush to compromise on its maximalist demands, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional ceasefires have been rejected. Active fighting, including Russian missile and drone strikes and incremental frontline advances into mid-2026, underscores the absence of diplomatic momentum sufficient for a binding deal. These dynamics align with the 72.5% implied probability on no agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,234,199End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities and unresolved core disputes continue to shape trader expectations against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in early 2026, including sessions in Geneva and the UAE, produced prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires but stalled over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russia has signaled no deadlines or rush to compromise on its maximalist demands, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional ceasefires have been rejected. Active fighting, including Russian missile and drone strikes and incremental frontline advances into mid-2026, underscores the absence of diplomatic momentum sufficient for a binding deal. These dynamics align with the 72.5% implied probability on no agreement before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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