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Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
$10,713,442 Vol.
May 22, 2026
April 30
$3,397,024 Vol.
1%
May 8
$23,575 Vol.
12%
May 15
$487,100 Vol.
19%
May 22
$2,103 Vol.
31%
May 31
$1,882,206 Vol.
42%
$10,713,442 Vol.
April 30
$3,397,024 Vol.
1%
May 8
$23,575 Vol.
12%
May 15
$487,100 Vol.
19%
May 22
$2,103 Vol.
31%
May 31
$1,882,206 Vol.
42%
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump imposed a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, following collapsed US-Iran peace talks, aiming to pressure Tehran amid escalating military tensions and restricted oil flows. Iran proposed reopening the strait on April 27 if the U.S. lifts the blockade and ends hostilities, but the Trump administration rejected it, insisting the measure remains "in full force" until a comprehensive deal is reached. Traders on Polymarket reflect this deadlock with leading odds on an announcement by May 31, driven by surging benchmark oil prices nearing four-year highs, U.S. efforts to build an international coalition for reopening, and Iran's threats of retaliation. Upcoming national security meetings and potential diplomatic signals could shift probabilities amid economic pressures on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump imposed a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, following collapsed US-Iran peace talks, aiming to pressure Tehran amid escalating military tensions and restricted oil flows. Iran proposed reopening the strait on April 27 if the U.S. lifts the blockade and ends hostilities, but the Trump administration rejected it, insisting the measure remains "in full force" until a comprehensive deal is reached. Traders on Polymarket reflect this deadlock with leading odds on an announcement by May 31, driven by surging benchmark oil prices nearing four-year highs, U.S. efforts to build an international coalition for reopening, and Iran's threats of retaliation. Upcoming national security meetings and potential diplomatic signals could shift probabilities amid economic pressures on both sides.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump imposed a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, following collapsed US-Iran peace talks, aiming to pressure Tehran amid escalating military tensions and restricted oil flows. Iran proposed reopening the strait on April 27 if the U.S. lifts the blockade and ends hostilities, but the Trump administration rejected it, insisting the measure remains "in full force" until a comprehensive deal is reached. Traders on Polymarket reflect this deadlock with leading odds on an announcement by May 31, driven by surging benchmark oil prices nearing four-year highs, U.S. efforts to build an international coalition for reopening, and Iran's threats of retaliation. Upcoming national security meetings and potential diplomatic signals could shift probabilities amid economic pressures on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump imposed a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, following collapsed US-Iran peace talks, aiming to pressure Tehran amid escalating military tensions and restricted oil flows. Iran proposed reopening the strait on April 27 if the U.S. lifts the blockade and ends hostilities, but the Trump administration rejected it, insisting the measure remains "in full force" until a comprehensive deal is reached. Traders on Polymarket reflect this deadlock with leading odds on an announcement by May 31, driven by surging benchmark oil prices nearing four-year highs, U.S. efforts to build an international coalition for reopening, and Iran's threats of retaliation. Upcoming national security meetings and potential diplomatic signals could shift probabilities amid economic pressures on both sides.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
"Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 42%, followed by "May 22" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" has generated $10.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" is "May 31" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 22" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $10.7 million traded on “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 42¢ for "May 31" in the "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 42% chance that "May 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 42¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 58¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" market has an active community of 266 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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