Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.2% implied probability against a Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by co-founder John Collison's January 2026 reaffirmation of no immediate public listing plans, reinforced by a February tender offer that valued the payments giant at $159 billion—providing secondary liquidity to employees and investors without regulatory scrutiny or lock-up constraints. Surging payment volume to $1.9 trillion in 2025 highlights robust private market fundamentals, reducing IPO urgency amid high secondary valuations. With only two months to resolution, an abrupt S-1 filing, banker syndicate assembly, and compressed roadshow would be required to challenge consensus, scenarios improbable given Stripe's multi-year pattern of delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 98.7%
80–100B <1%
<80B <1%
120–140B <1%
$158,676 Vol.
$158,676 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<80B
<1%
80–100B
1%
100–120B
<1%
120–140B
<1%
140B+
<1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
99%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 98.7%
80–100B <1%
<80B <1%
120–140B <1%
$158,676 Vol.
$158,676 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<80B
$69,148 Vol.
<1%
80–100B
$14,023 Vol.
1%
100–120B
$15,439 Vol.
<1%
120–140B
$32,520 Vol.
<1%
140B+
$12,000 Vol.
<1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$16,307 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.2% implied probability against a Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by co-founder John Collison's January 2026 reaffirmation of no immediate public listing plans, reinforced by a February tender offer that valued the payments giant at $159 billion—providing secondary liquidity to employees and investors without regulatory scrutiny or lock-up constraints. Surging payment volume to $1.9 trillion in 2025 highlights robust private market fundamentals, reducing IPO urgency amid high secondary valuations. With only two months to resolution, an abrupt S-1 filing, banker syndicate assembly, and compressed roadshow would be required to challenge consensus, scenarios improbable given Stripe's multi-year pattern of delays.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ET
Volume
$158,676End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.2% implied probability against a Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by co-founder John Collison's January 2026 reaffirmation of no immediate public listing plans, reinforced by a February tender offer that valued the payments giant at $159 billion—providing secondary liquidity to employees and investors without regulatory scrutiny or lock-up constraints. Surging payment volume to $1.9 trillion in 2025 highlights robust private market fundamentals, reducing IPO urgency amid high secondary valuations. With only two months to resolution, an abrupt S-1 filing, banker syndicate assembly, and compressed roadshow would be required to challenge consensus, scenarios improbable given Stripe's multi-year pattern of delays.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$158,676End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.2% implied probability against a Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by co-founder John Collison's January 2026 reaffirmation of no immediate public listing plans, reinforced by a February tender offer that valued the payments giant at $159 billion—providing secondary liquidity to employees and investors without regulatory scrutiny or lock-up constraints. Surging payment volume to $1.9 trillion in 2025 highlights robust private market fundamentals, reducing IPO urgency amid high secondary valuations. With only two months to resolution, an abrupt S-1 filing, banker syndicate assembly, and compressed roadshow would be required to challenge consensus, scenarios improbable given Stripe's multi-year pattern of delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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