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Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

icon for SC-01 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

Mark Smith 55%

Jack Ellison 17.9%

Alex Pelbath 18%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt 8.7%

Polymarket

$10,546 Vol.

Mark Smith 55%

Jack Ellison 17.9%

Alex Pelbath 18%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt 8.7%

Polymarket

$10,546 Vol.

Mark Smith

$2,984 Vol.

57%

Jack Ellison

$632 Vol.

18%

Alex Pelbath

$2,140 Vol.

18%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

$592 Vol.

9%

Sam McCown

$1,818 Vol.

7%

Jay Byars

$619 Vol.

5%

Logan Cunningham

$671 Vol.

1%

Justin Myers

$536 Vol.

1%

Dan Brown

$554 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Rep. Mark Smith leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the SC-01 Republican primary on June 9, bolstered by his April 17 GOP forum straw poll win at 34.1% among attendees, edging Alex Pelbath, and strong Q1 fundraising with $548,000 cash on hand. As the early entrant and sitting lawmaker from District 99, Smith's incumbency and local name recognition in the coastal district drive his frontrunner status in the crowded 10-candidate field. Jack Ellison and Pelbath trail closely at 19% and 17%, reflecting their forum performances and fundraising ($366,000 raised for Pelbath), while Sam McCown's $1.5 million haul has yet to translate to market momentum. Upcoming League of Women Voters forums could shift dynamics in this open seat race vacated by Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,546
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Rep. Mark Smith leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the SC-01 Republican primary on June 9, bolstered by his April 17 GOP forum straw poll win at 34.1% among attendees, edging Alex Pelbath, and strong Q1 fundraising with $548,000 cash on hand. As the early entrant and sitting lawmaker from District 99, Smith's incumbency and local name recognition in the coastal district drive his frontrunner status in the crowded 10-candidate field. Jack Ellison and Pelbath trail closely at 19% and 17%, reflecting their forum performances and fundraising ($366,000 raised for Pelbath), while Sam McCown's $1.5 million haul has yet to translate to market momentum. Upcoming League of Women Voters forums could shift dynamics in this open seat race vacated by Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,546
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Smith" at 57%, followed by "Jack Ellison" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $10.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mark Smith" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jack Ellison" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.