OpenAI's rapid iteration on GPT-5.x models has driven trader optimism for strong FrontierMath performance by June 30, 2026, with the April 23 release of GPT-5.5 marking a key catalyst: it achieved 35.4% on the grueling Tier 4—research-grade math problems unsolved by most humans—up from GPT-5.4's 27.1% and ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at 22.9%. This lead reflects OpenAI's focus on math-specific scaling and test-time compute, though gains are slowing versus easier tiers nearing 50% saturation. Competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Anthropic intensifies, but OpenAI's monthly release cadence suggests GPT-5.6 or Pro variants could push scores higher; watch for developer conference teases or API benchmarks in May. Market-implied odds hinge on whether scaling laws hold amid regulatory scrutiny on AI capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$30,130 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
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$30,130 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's rapid iteration on GPT-5.x models has driven trader optimism for strong FrontierMath performance by June 30, 2026, with the April 23 release of GPT-5.5 marking a key catalyst: it achieved 35.4% on the grueling Tier 4—research-grade math problems unsolved by most humans—up from GPT-5.4's 27.1% and ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at 22.9%. This lead reflects OpenAI's focus on math-specific scaling and test-time compute, though gains are slowing versus easier tiers nearing 50% saturation. Competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Anthropic intensifies, but OpenAI's monthly release cadence suggests GPT-5.6 or Pro variants could push scores higher; watch for developer conference teases or API benchmarks in May. Market-implied odds hinge on whether scaling laws hold amid regulatory scrutiny on AI capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$30,130End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's rapid iteration on GPT-5.x models has driven trader optimism for strong FrontierMath performance by June 30, 2026, with the April 23 release of GPT-5.5 marking a key catalyst: it achieved 35.4% on the grueling Tier 4—research-grade math problems unsolved by most humans—up from GPT-5.4's 27.1% and ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at 22.9%. This lead reflects OpenAI's focus on math-specific scaling and test-time compute, though gains are slowing versus easier tiers nearing 50% saturation. Competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Anthropic intensifies, but OpenAI's monthly release cadence suggests GPT-5.6 or Pro variants could push scores higher; watch for developer conference teases or API benchmarks in May. Market-implied odds hinge on whether scaling laws hold amid regulatory scrutiny on AI capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,130End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's rapid iteration on GPT-5.x models has driven trader optimism for strong FrontierMath performance by June 30, 2026, with the April 23 release of GPT-5.5 marking a key catalyst: it achieved 35.4% on the grueling Tier 4—research-grade math problems unsolved by most humans—up from GPT-5.4's 27.1% and ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at 22.9%. This lead reflects OpenAI's focus on math-specific scaling and test-time compute, though gains are slowing versus easier tiers nearing 50% saturation. Competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Anthropic intensifies, but OpenAI's monthly release cadence suggests GPT-5.6 or Pro variants could push scores higher; watch for developer conference teases or API benchmarks in May. Market-implied odds hinge on whether scaling laws hold amid regulatory scrutiny on AI capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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