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Geopolitics·Iran

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?

icon for Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
Geopolitics·Iran

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?

8% chance
Polymarket

$17,070 Vol.

8% chance
Polymarket

$17,070 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Nechirvan Barzani remaining Kurdistan Regional Government President, reflecting his continued active leadership amid regional tensions without any resignation announcements or succession moves. In the past month, Barzani has reaffirmed KRG neutrality in Iran-related conflicts and escalation risks, engaged Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi, stressed ceasefire adherence between US and Iraqi forces, and held recent discussions with US leaders including Congressman Abraham Hamadeh on stability. A late-March drone attack on his Erbil residence drew international condemnation from the US and Turkey but did not disrupt his duties. Absent parliamentary elections or constitutional term limits triggering replacement post-2024 polls, his position appears secure barring unforeseen health or political crises.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,070
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Nechirvan Barzani remaining Kurdistan Regional Government President, reflecting his continued active leadership amid regional tensions without any resignation announcements or succession moves. In the past month, Barzani has reaffirmed KRG neutrality in Iran-related conflicts and escalation risks, engaged Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi, stressed ceasefire adherence between US and Iraqi forces, and held recent discussions with US leaders including Congressman Abraham Hamadeh on stability. A late-March drone attack on his Erbil residence drew international condemnation from the US and Turkey but did not disrupt his duties. Absent parliamentary elections or constitutional term limits triggering replacement post-2024 polls, his position appears secure barring unforeseen health or political crises.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,070
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" has generated $17.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.