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Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Michele Tafoya 80%

Adam Schwarze 11.0%

Royce White 5.8%

Jim Nash 3.5%

Polymarket

$81,689 Vol.

Michele Tafoya 80%

Adam Schwarze 11.0%

Royce White 5.8%

Jim Nash 3.5%

Polymarket

$81,689 Vol.

Michele Tafoya

$3,858 Vol.

80%

Adam Schwarze

$5,180 Vol.

16%

Royce White

$31,261 Vol.

6%

Jim Nash

$2,440 Vol.

3%

Julia Coleman

$4,441 Vol.

1%

Alycia Gruenhagen

$4,780 Vol.

1%

Kristin Robbins

$2,007 Vol.

1%

David Hann

$22,100 Vol.

1%

Christopher Brooks

$1,360 Vol.

<1%

Tom Weiler

$1,956 Vol.

<1%

Mike Ruoho

$1,064 Vol.

<1%

Raymond Petersen

$1,241 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Michele Tafoya leads trader consensus at 80% implied probability in the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary due to her commanding February poll (41% support among likely voters), dominant Q1 fundraising ($1.89 million, exceeding all rivals combined), and National Republican Senatorial Committee backing, positioning her as the establishment frontrunner ahead of the August 11 primary. Navy SEAL veteran Adam Schwarze holds second at 19.5% on grassroots appeal and abiding by party endorsement rules, gaining from dueling mailers and base support amid a crowded field. Royce White's odds fell to 6.3% after a April 24 court ruling finding abuse toward his ex-wife and son, prompting Minnesota GOP leaders to urge him to suspend his campaign over domestic allegations. Upcoming state convention could solidify the endorsement, influencing turnout in this skin-in-the-game race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$81,689
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Michele Tafoya leads trader consensus at 80% implied probability in the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary due to her commanding February poll (41% support among likely voters), dominant Q1 fundraising ($1.89 million, exceeding all rivals combined), and National Republican Senatorial Committee backing, positioning her as the establishment frontrunner ahead of the August 11 primary. Navy SEAL veteran Adam Schwarze holds second at 19.5% on grassroots appeal and abiding by party endorsement rules, gaining from dueling mailers and base support amid a crowded field. Royce White's odds fell to 6.3% after a April 24 court ruling finding abuse toward his ex-wife and son, prompting Minnesota GOP leaders to urge him to suspend his campaign over domestic allegations. Upcoming state convention could solidify the endorsement, influencing turnout in this skin-in-the-game race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$81,689
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michele Tafoya" at 80%, followed by "Adam Schwarze" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $81.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Michele Tafoya" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Adam Schwarze" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.