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icon for What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

icon for What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

May 12

May 12

Man on Fire 81%

The Roast of Kevin Hart 23%

The Chestnut Man 9.6%

Lord of the Flies 3.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Man on Fire 81%

The Roast of Kevin Hart 23%

The Chestnut Man 9.6%

Lord of the Flies 3.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Man on Fire

Man on Fire

$19 Vol.

68%

icon for The Roast of Kevin Hart

The Roast of Kevin Hart

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for The Chestnut Man

The Chestnut Man

$458 Vol.

10%

icon for Lord of the Flies

Lord of the Flies

$483 Vol.

3%

icon for Should I Marry A Murderer?

Should I Marry A Murderer?

$355 Vol.

2%

icon for Legends

Legends

$1,070 Vol.

1%

icon for The Boroughs

The Boroughs

$449 Vol.

1%

icon for Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine

Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine

$449 Vol.

1%

icon for Running Point

Running Point

$679 Vol.

<1%

icon for Unchosen

Unchosen

$1,567 Vol.

<1%

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race for the #2 spot in Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows this week, with The Chestnut Man slightly ahead at 27% implied probability amid early viewing data showing all frontrunners clustered tightly behind a dominant #1 like Man on Fire or Unchosen. Fresh premieres drive the logjam: Lord of the Flies debuted May 4 to strong reviews praising its harrowing adaptation of the Golding classic, boosting binge potential, while The Chestnut Man: Hide and Seek garners fresh acclaim for its chilling Nordic noir sequel just yesterday. Differentiators include franchise momentum for Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine (Money Heist spinoff buzz pre-May 15 drop), Kevin Hart's star-powered Roast live-streaming May 10, and true-crime hooks in Should I Marry A Murderer?, but volatile weekend streams and completion metrics could shuffle rankings before Tuesday's official update.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,529
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race for the #2 spot in Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows this week, with The Chestnut Man slightly ahead at 27% implied probability amid early viewing data showing all frontrunners clustered tightly behind a dominant #1 like Man on Fire or Unchosen. Fresh premieres drive the logjam: Lord of the Flies debuted May 4 to strong reviews praising its harrowing adaptation of the Golding classic, boosting binge potential, while The Chestnut Man: Hide and Seek garners fresh acclaim for its chilling Nordic noir sequel just yesterday. Differentiators include franchise momentum for Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine (Money Heist spinoff buzz pre-May 15 drop), Kevin Hart's star-powered Roast live-streaming May 10, and true-crime hooks in Should I Marry A Murderer?, but volatile weekend streams and completion metrics could shuffle rankings before Tuesday's official update.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,529
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Man on Fire" at 68%, followed by "The Roast of Kevin Hart" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" is "Man on Fire" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Roast of Kevin Hart" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.