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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

icon for What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

May 12

May 12

The Roast of Kevin Hart 15.0%

Man on Fire 11%

Lord of the Flies 3.2%

Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine 2.7%

Polymarket

$10,503 Vol.

The Roast of Kevin Hart 15.0%

Man on Fire 11%

Lord of the Flies 3.2%

Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine 2.7%

Polymarket

$10,503 Vol.

The Roast of Kevin Hart

$1,574 Vol.

23%

Man on Fire

$3,326 Vol.

11%

Lord of the Flies

$1,421 Vol.

3%

Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine

$629 Vol.

3%

The Chestnut Man

$508 Vol.

2%

Legends

$397 Vol.

1%

Should I Marry A Murderer?

$1,113 Vol.

1%

Unchosen

$520 Vol.

1%

Running Point

$497 Vol.

<1%

The Boroughs

$519 Vol.

<1%

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Man on Fire leads trader consensus at 23.5% implied probability thanks to its explosive April 30 premiere, racking up 11 million views in its first four days amid strong action-thriller appeal and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II's star power, carrying momentum into this week's US Netflix rankings where it battles for the top spot. The Roast of Kevin Hart trails closely at 15%, fueled by massive pre-event buzz for its live May 10 stream hosted by Shane Gillis during Netflix Is a Joke Fest, tapping Kevin Hart's comedy dominance. Legends at 9% gains from rave early reviews as a bingeable British crime drama akin to Slow Horses since its May 7 debut, while holdovers like Should I Marry A Murderer? fade amid fresh competition. With viewing hours still tallying through weekend binges, the roast's live draw and late surges could upend the closely contested field.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$10,503
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Man on Fire leads trader consensus at 23.5% implied probability thanks to its explosive April 30 premiere, racking up 11 million views in its first four days amid strong action-thriller appeal and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II's star power, carrying momentum into this week's US Netflix rankings where it battles for the top spot. The Roast of Kevin Hart trails closely at 15%, fueled by massive pre-event buzz for its live May 10 stream hosted by Shane Gillis during Netflix Is a Joke Fest, tapping Kevin Hart's comedy dominance. Legends at 9% gains from rave early reviews as a bingeable British crime drama akin to Slow Horses since its May 7 debut, while holdovers like Should I Marry A Murderer? fade amid fresh competition. With viewing hours still tallying through weekend binges, the roast's live draw and late surges could upend the closely contested field.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$10,503
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Roast of Kevin Hart" at 23%, followed by "Man on Fire" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" has generated $10.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" is "The Roast of Kevin Hart" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Man on Fire" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.