Robert Kenyon leads the market for second place in the Makerfield by-election at 72.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour’s Andy Burnham on 22.4%. The contest has narrowed to a two-horse race between Reform UK’s local candidate, a plumber and former councillor who placed second in the 2024 general election, and Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat. Recent constituency polls show Labour narrowly ahead, yet persistent voter frustration over living costs, immigration, and government performance has sustained Reform’s competitive position. Minor-party candidates, including those from Restore Britain and the Conservatives, remain marginal. With voting four days away on 18 June, trader consensus reflects the likelihood of a narrow Labour victory leaving Kenyon in second.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRobert Kenyon 73%
Andy Burnham 22.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 3.1%
John Skipworth <1%
$148,512 Vol.
$148,512 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
73%
Andy Burnham
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
John Skipworth
<1%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 73%
Andy Burnham 22.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 3.1%
John Skipworth <1%
$148,512 Vol.
$148,512 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
$5,494 Vol.
73%
Andy Burnham
$4,221 Vol.
22%
Rebecca Shepherd
$135,307 Vol.
3%
John Skipworth
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
Simon Finkelstein
$1,374 Vol.
<1%
Maria Deery
$788 Vol.
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Robert Kenyon leads the market for second place in the Makerfield by-election at 72.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour’s Andy Burnham on 22.4%. The contest has narrowed to a two-horse race between Reform UK’s local candidate, a plumber and former councillor who placed second in the 2024 general election, and Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat. Recent constituency polls show Labour narrowly ahead, yet persistent voter frustration over living costs, immigration, and government performance has sustained Reform’s competitive position. Minor-party candidates, including those from Restore Britain and the Conservatives, remain marginal. With voting four days away on 18 June, trader consensus reflects the likelihood of a narrow Labour victory leaving Kenyon in second.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$148,512End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Robert Kenyon leads the market for second place in the Makerfield by-election at 72.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour’s Andy Burnham on 22.4%. The contest has narrowed to a two-horse race between Reform UK’s local candidate, a plumber and former councillor who placed second in the 2024 general election, and Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat. Recent constituency polls show Labour narrowly ahead, yet persistent voter frustration over living costs, immigration, and government performance has sustained Reform’s competitive position. Minor-party candidates, including those from Restore Britain and the Conservatives, remain marginal. With voting four days away on 18 June, trader consensus reflects the likelihood of a narrow Labour victory leaving Kenyon in second.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$148,512End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Robert Kenyon leads the market for second place in the Makerfield by-election at 72.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour’s Andy Burnham on 22.4%. The contest has narrowed to a two-horse race between Reform UK’s local candidate, a plumber and former councillor who placed second in the 2024 general election, and Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a parliamentary seat. Recent constituency polls show Labour narrowly ahead, yet persistent voter frustration over living costs, immigration, and government performance has sustained Reform’s competitive position. Minor-party candidates, including those from Restore Britain and the Conservatives, remain marginal. With voting four days away on 18 June, trader consensus reflects the likelihood of a narrow Labour victory leaving Kenyon in second.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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