**UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 faces heightened uncertainty amid an energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, which has prompted sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts.** Recent Q1 data showed solid 0.6% QoQ expansion—driven by services and front-loading ahead of potential supply disruptions—but analysts expect momentum to fade sharply in the current quarter as higher wholesale gas and oil prices squeeze household real incomes and tighten financial conditions. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in April, with inflation already at 3.3% and projected to rise further through year-end, while the labor market continues to loosen with rising unemployment. This environment supports a wide dispersion of outcomes, with trader-implied probabilities clustered near 45% across negative, near-zero, and modestly positive growth buckets, reflecting the balance between residual fiscal support and the drag from elevated energy costs and global uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and upcoming inflation prints will provide key signals ahead of the Q2 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0–0.1% 95%
1.0%+ 95%
Negative 94%
0.6–0.7% 83%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
Negative
94%
0.0–0.1%
95%
0.2–0.3%
44%
0.4–0.5%
44%
0.6–0.7%
83%
0.8–0.9%
-
1.0%+
95%
0.0–0.1% 95%
1.0%+ 95%
Negative 94%
0.6–0.7% 83%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
Negative
$0 Vol.
94%
0.0–0.1%
$0 Vol.
95%
0.2–0.3%
$0 Vol.
44%
0.4–0.5%
$0 Vol.
44%
0.6–0.7%
$0 Vol.
83%
0.8–0.9%
$8 Vol.
-
1.0%+
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 faces heightened uncertainty amid an energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, which has prompted sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts.** Recent Q1 data showed solid 0.6% QoQ expansion—driven by services and front-loading ahead of potential supply disruptions—but analysts expect momentum to fade sharply in the current quarter as higher wholesale gas and oil prices squeeze household real incomes and tighten financial conditions. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in April, with inflation already at 3.3% and projected to rise further through year-end, while the labor market continues to loosen with rising unemployment. This environment supports a wide dispersion of outcomes, with trader-implied probabilities clustered near 45% across negative, near-zero, and modestly positive growth buckets, reflecting the balance between residual fiscal support and the drag from elevated energy costs and global uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and upcoming inflation prints will provide key signals ahead of the Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$8End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 faces heightened uncertainty amid an energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, which has prompted sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts.** Recent Q1 data showed solid 0.6% QoQ expansion—driven by services and front-loading ahead of potential supply disruptions—but analysts expect momentum to fade sharply in the current quarter as higher wholesale gas and oil prices squeeze household real incomes and tighten financial conditions. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in April, with inflation already at 3.3% and projected to rise further through year-end, while the labor market continues to loosen with rising unemployment. This environment supports a wide dispersion of outcomes, with trader-implied probabilities clustered near 45% across negative, near-zero, and modestly positive growth buckets, reflecting the balance between residual fiscal support and the drag from elevated energy costs and global uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and upcoming inflation prints will provide key signals ahead of the Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 faces heightened uncertainty amid an energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, which has prompted sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts.** Recent Q1 data showed solid 0.6% QoQ expansion—driven by services and front-loading ahead of potential supply disruptions—but analysts expect momentum to fade sharply in the current quarter as higher wholesale gas and oil prices squeeze household real incomes and tighten financial conditions. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in April, with inflation already at 3.3% and projected to rise further through year-end, while the labor market continues to loosen with rising unemployment. This environment supports a wide dispersion of outcomes, with trader-implied probabilities clustered near 45% across negative, near-zero, and modestly positive growth buckets, reflecting the balance between residual fiscal support and the drag from elevated energy costs and global uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and upcoming inflation prints will provide key signals ahead of the Q2 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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