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icon for Major US official out by May 31?
Politics·Out

Major US official out by May 31?

icon for Major US official out by May 31?
Politics·Out

Major US official out by May 31?

59% chance
Polymarket
NEW
59% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from President Trump's cabinet—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 21 amid a federal misconduct investigation, following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2 and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's exit in March—have driven trader consensus to price a fourth major US official exit by May 31 at 54.5% Yes. This closely contested implied probability reflects the administration's pattern of rapid turnover, echoing first-term instability, amid reports of Trump polling cabinet members on potential further changes. No specific next resignation is confirmed, maintaining balance; fresh firing announcements or scandals could surge Yes odds, while White House affirmations of stability might push toward No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.

A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.

If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,957
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from President Trump's cabinet—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 21 amid a federal misconduct investigation, following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2 and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's exit in March—have driven trader consensus to price a fourth major US official exit by May 31 at 54.5% Yes. This closely contested implied probability reflects the administration's pattern of rapid turnover, echoing first-term instability, amid reports of Trump polling cabinet members on potential further changes. No specific next resignation is confirmed, maintaining balance; fresh firing announcements or scandals could surge Yes odds, while White House affirmations of stability might push toward No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.

A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.

If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,957
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Major US official out by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 59% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 59¢, the market collectively assigns a 59% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Major US official out by May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Major US official out by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Major US official out by May 31?" is 59% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 59% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Major US official out by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.