Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirming zero potential impactors on its risk table for the year. Recent April close approaches by asteroids like 2026 HR, HP2, and HP3—ranging 16-50 meters in diameter—passed safely at 13-16 lunar distances, with refined observations eliminating prior concerns such as 2024 YR4's lunar risk. No significant bolides detected year-to-date amid record NEO discoveries, underscoring advanced planetary defense surveillance via telescopes and radar that detects most threats well in advance. Tail risk persists for rare undetected airbursts, but upcoming monitoring through December offers little catalyst for reversal absent surprise observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,475 Vol.
$153,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,475 Vol.
$153,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirming zero potential impactors on its risk table for the year. Recent April close approaches by asteroids like 2026 HR, HP2, and HP3—ranging 16-50 meters in diameter—passed safely at 13-16 lunar distances, with refined observations eliminating prior concerns such as 2024 YR4's lunar risk. No significant bolides detected year-to-date amid record NEO discoveries, underscoring advanced planetary defense surveillance via telescopes and radar that detects most threats well in advance. Tail risk persists for rare undetected airbursts, but upcoming monitoring through December offers little catalyst for reversal absent surprise observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,475End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirming zero potential impactors on its risk table for the year. Recent April close approaches by asteroids like 2026 HR, HP2, and HP3—ranging 16-50 meters in diameter—passed safely at 13-16 lunar distances, with refined observations eliminating prior concerns such as 2024 YR4's lunar risk. No significant bolides detected year-to-date amid record NEO discoveries, underscoring advanced planetary defense surveillance via telescopes and radar that detects most threats well in advance. Tail risk persists for rare undetected airbursts, but upcoming monitoring through December offers little catalyst for reversal absent surprise observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,475End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirming zero potential impactors on its risk table for the year. Recent April close approaches by asteroids like 2026 HR, HP2, and HP3—ranging 16-50 meters in diameter—passed safely at 13-16 lunar distances, with refined observations eliminating prior concerns such as 2024 YR4's lunar risk. No significant bolides detected year-to-date amid record NEO discoveries, underscoring advanced planetary defense surveillance via telescopes and radar that detects most threats well in advance. Tail risk persists for rare undetected airbursts, but upcoming monitoring through December offers little catalyst for reversal absent surprise observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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