NASA's CNEOS Sentry impact monitoring system, which scans asteroid catalogs for Earth collision risks, currently lists no credible threats for a 10kt+ meteor airburst or strike in 2026, with only two tiny-probability events (under 0.004%) for sub-20-meter objects far below major yield thresholds. Trader consensus at 83% for "No" reflects this data alongside Q1 2026's record 2,300+ fireball detections—all under 0.5kt per CNEOS—attributed to enhanced sensor networks rather than rising danger, plus safe flybys like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9. Warnings of 15,000 undiscovered near-Earth objects sustain the 17% "Yes" tail risk, with ongoing planetary defense radar and telescope surveys as key catalysts through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,475 Vol.
$153,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,475 Vol.
$153,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's CNEOS Sentry impact monitoring system, which scans asteroid catalogs for Earth collision risks, currently lists no credible threats for a 10kt+ meteor airburst or strike in 2026, with only two tiny-probability events (under 0.004%) for sub-20-meter objects far below major yield thresholds. Trader consensus at 83% for "No" reflects this data alongside Q1 2026's record 2,300+ fireball detections—all under 0.5kt per CNEOS—attributed to enhanced sensor networks rather than rising danger, plus safe flybys like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9. Warnings of 15,000 undiscovered near-Earth objects sustain the 17% "Yes" tail risk, with ongoing planetary defense radar and telescope surveys as key catalysts through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,475End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's CNEOS Sentry impact monitoring system, which scans asteroid catalogs for Earth collision risks, currently lists no credible threats for a 10kt+ meteor airburst or strike in 2026, with only two tiny-probability events (under 0.004%) for sub-20-meter objects far below major yield thresholds. Trader consensus at 83% for "No" reflects this data alongside Q1 2026's record 2,300+ fireball detections—all under 0.5kt per CNEOS—attributed to enhanced sensor networks rather than rising danger, plus safe flybys like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9. Warnings of 15,000 undiscovered near-Earth objects sustain the 17% "Yes" tail risk, with ongoing planetary defense radar and telescope surveys as key catalysts through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,475End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's CNEOS Sentry impact monitoring system, which scans asteroid catalogs for Earth collision risks, currently lists no credible threats for a 10kt+ meteor airburst or strike in 2026, with only two tiny-probability events (under 0.004%) for sub-20-meter objects far below major yield thresholds. Trader consensus at 83% for "No" reflects this data alongside Q1 2026's record 2,300+ fireball detections—all under 0.5kt per CNEOS—attributed to enhanced sensor networks rather than rising danger, plus safe flybys like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9. Warnings of 15,000 undiscovered near-Earth objects sustain the 17% "Yes" tail risk, with ongoing planetary defense radar and telescope surveys as key catalysts through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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