**Latest official forecasts from AEMET and major models converge on a Madrid high of 31–32 °C for June 15, driven by a weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the south under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only isolated light showers possible that would cap daytime heating rather than enhance it. Historical June climatology places the 31–33 °C range as the typical upper envelope for mid-month, and current 500 hPa heights remain near seasonal norms without a pronounced ridge. The market’s 46.5 % weighting on 32 °C versus 26.5 % on 31 °C reflects traders’ assessment that the upper end of the consensus forecast is marginally more probable given slight positive bias in recent runs and the resolution threshold at Retiro station. Any last-minute shift in AEMET’s evening update or unexpected cloud cover could quickly reprice the adjacent contracts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
32°C 47%
31°C 27%
33°C 21.6%
30°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$24,399 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,399 Vol.
15 jun 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
27%
32°C
47%
33°C
22%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 47%
31°C 27%
33°C 21.6%
30°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$24,399 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,399 Vol.
15 jun 2026
27°C or below
$903 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,292 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,810 Vol.
1%
30°C
$3,361 Vol.
4%
31°C
$2,181 Vol.
27%
32°C
$2,697 Vol.
47%
33°C
$3,210 Vol.
22%
34°C
$4,908 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,410 Vol.
1%
36°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest official forecasts from AEMET and major models converge on a Madrid high of 31–32 °C for June 15, driven by a weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the south under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only isolated light showers possible that would cap daytime heating rather than enhance it. Historical June climatology places the 31–33 °C range as the typical upper envelope for mid-month, and current 500 hPa heights remain near seasonal norms without a pronounced ridge. The market’s 46.5 % weighting on 32 °C versus 26.5 % on 31 °C reflects traders’ assessment that the upper end of the consensus forecast is marginally more probable given slight positive bias in recent runs and the resolution threshold at Retiro station. Any last-minute shift in AEMET’s evening update or unexpected cloud cover could quickly reprice the adjacent contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$24,399Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest official forecasts from AEMET and major models converge on a Madrid high of 31–32 °C for June 15, driven by a weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the south under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only isolated light showers possible that would cap daytime heating rather than enhance it. Historical June climatology places the 31–33 °C range as the typical upper envelope for mid-month, and current 500 hPa heights remain near seasonal norms without a pronounced ridge. The market’s 46.5 % weighting on 32 °C versus 26.5 % on 31 °C reflects traders’ assessment that the upper end of the consensus forecast is marginally more probable given slight positive bias in recent runs and the resolution threshold at Retiro station. Any last-minute shift in AEMET’s evening update or unexpected cloud cover could quickly reprice the adjacent contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$24,399Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest official forecasts from AEMET and major models converge on a Madrid high of 31–32 °C for June 15, driven by a weak surface high and modest warm-air advection from the south under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only isolated light showers possible that would cap daytime heating rather than enhance it. Historical June climatology places the 31–33 °C range as the typical upper envelope for mid-month, and current 500 hPa heights remain near seasonal norms without a pronounced ridge. The market’s 46.5 % weighting on 32 °C versus 26.5 % on 31 °C reflects traders’ assessment that the upper end of the consensus forecast is marginally more probable given slight positive bias in recent runs and the resolution threshold at Retiro station. Any last-minute shift in AEMET’s evening update or unexpected cloud cover could quickly reprice the adjacent contracts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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