JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength

No change rises to 100%1%

Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.

Final pre‑April‑28 FOMC statement (released 28‑29 April) confirms the Fed kept the upper bound unchanged, causing the “25 bps decrease” outcome to collapse to 0 %

25 bps decrease dips to 0%1%

Final pre‑April‑28 FOMC statement (released 28‑29 April) confirms the Fed kept the upper bound unchanged, causing the “25 bps decrease” outcome to collapse to 0 %

CME FedWatch tool shows cut probability slipping below 30 % after weak payroll data, confirming a low chance of a 25‑bp reduction and pushing the

25 bps decrease drops to 2%10%

CME FedWatch tool shows cut probability slipping below 30 % after weak payroll data, confirming a low chance of a 25‑bp reduction and pushing the

Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers

25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%

Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently

No change jumps to 96%10%

The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.

Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in

50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%

Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April

Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth

No change jumps to 86%11%

The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"

Fed Governor Neel Kashkari’s public warning against further cuts (reported 6 Nov) resurfaces in February, slashing cut odds and sending the

25 bps decrease drops to 20%5%

Fed Governor Neel Kashkari’s public warning against further cuts (reported 6 Nov) resurfaces in February, slashing cut odds and sending the

January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;

50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%

Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts

Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings

No change jumps to 69%6%

Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.

Fed’s January 2026 meeting minutes (released late December) show growing disagreement over additional cuts, reinforcing expectations of no 25‑bp move and driving the

25 bps decrease drops to 25%11%

Fed’s January 2026 meeting minutes (released late December) show growing disagreement over additional cuts, reinforcing expectations of no 25‑bp move and driving the

Mid‑Valley News highlights Fed officials’ hawkish tone and a 9‑3 vote for a December cut, signalling limited easing and pushing the

25 bps decrease jumps to 36%9%

Mid‑Valley News highlights Fed officials’ hawkish tone and a 9‑3 vote for a December cut, signalling limited easing and pushing the

Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions

No change jumps to 61%14%

The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.

Federal Open Market Committee cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%, but Fed's updated "dot plot" projects only one additional cut in 2026, initially tempering large cut expectations

50+ bps decrease dips to 6%3%

Federal Open Market Committee cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%, but Fed's updated "dot plot" projects only one additional cut in 2026, initially tempering large cut expectations

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear

No change plunges to 47%17%

Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"

Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause

25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%

Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the

10] CBS News notes that a December cut is now seen as unlikely (cut probability falls to 22 %), pulling the market sharply lower

25 bps decrease drops to 27%9%

10] CBS News notes that a December cut is now seen as unlikely (cut probability falls to 22 %), pulling the market sharply lower

Federal Reserve cuts the federal‑funds target by 25 bps to 3.50‑3.75 % (third cut of 2025), briefly reviving cut expectations and lifting the

25 bps decrease rises to 36%4%

Federal Reserve cuts the federal‑funds target by 25 bps to 3.50‑3.75 % (third cut of 2025), briefly reviving cut expectations and lifting the

Core PCE inflation comes in hotter than forecast, suggesting the Fed may stay tighter and dampening cut hopes

25 bps decrease drops to 32%10%

Core PCE inflation comes in hotter than forecast, suggesting the Fed may stay tighter and dampening cut hopes

New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient

50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%

New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending

FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts

No change jumps to 64%6%

The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.

Fed minutes reveal split over December cut, with some members warning against further easing – Reuters reported that the November minutes showed “a divided Federal Reserve” and

25+ bps increase dips to 4%2%

Fed minutes reveal split over December cut, with some members warning against further easing – Reuters reported that the November minutes showed “a divided Federal Reserve” and cautioned that additional cuts could risk “entrenched inflation,” raising short‑term uncertainty and briefly lifting the probability of a 25‑bp increase.

Mixed labor‑market signals from private data show slowing hiring, weakening expectations for further cuts

25 bps decrease jumps to 42%8%

Mixed labor‑market signals from private data show slowing hiring, weakening expectations for further cuts

Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution

No change dips to 58%3%

The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"

Reuters reports odds of no Fed rate cut rise to 41 % as the November data calendar remains empty, prompting a sharp drop in cut‑expectations

25 bps decrease rises to 34%3%

Reuters reports odds of no Fed rate cut rise to 41 % as the November data calendar remains empty, prompting a sharp drop in cut‑expectations

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views

No change rises to 61%3%

This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.

U.S. government shutdown ends after 43 days, clearing the way for delayed economic data releases

25 bps decrease plunges to 31%21%

U.S. government shutdown ends after 43 days, clearing the way for delayed economic data releases