Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability that the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026—will not be repealed before 2027, driven by stalled legislative momentum. The House Rules Committee recently rejected the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), sponsored by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), which sought to restore full deductibility up to winnings, with Republicans citing it as a key revenue safeguard amid budget pressures. IRS proposed regulations published April 17 further solidify implementation, while the bill languishes in the Ways and Means Committee without bipartisan whip counts or inclusion in reconciliation packages. Absent major shifts like end-of-year omnibus negotiations, significant barriers persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$65,544 Vol.
$65,544 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$65,544 Vol.
$65,544 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability that the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026—will not be repealed before 2027, driven by stalled legislative momentum. The House Rules Committee recently rejected the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), sponsored by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), which sought to restore full deductibility up to winnings, with Republicans citing it as a key revenue safeguard amid budget pressures. IRS proposed regulations published April 17 further solidify implementation, while the bill languishes in the Ways and Means Committee without bipartisan whip counts or inclusion in reconciliation packages. Absent major shifts like end-of-year omnibus negotiations, significant barriers persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$65,544End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability that the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026—will not be repealed before 2027, driven by stalled legislative momentum. The House Rules Committee recently rejected the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), sponsored by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), which sought to restore full deductibility up to winnings, with Republicans citing it as a key revenue safeguard amid budget pressures. IRS proposed regulations published April 17 further solidify implementation, while the bill languishes in the Ways and Means Committee without bipartisan whip counts or inclusion in reconciliation packages. Absent major shifts like end-of-year omnibus negotiations, significant barriers persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,544End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability that the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026—will not be repealed before 2027, driven by stalled legislative momentum. The House Rules Committee recently rejected the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), sponsored by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), which sought to restore full deductibility up to winnings, with Republicans citing it as a key revenue safeguard amid budget pressures. IRS proposed regulations published April 17 further solidify implementation, while the bill languishes in the Ways and Means Committee without bipartisan whip counts or inclusion in reconciliation packages. Absent major shifts like end-of-year omnibus negotiations, significant barriers persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions