**Governor Kathy Hochul’s consistent opposition remains the central barrier to the proposed two-percentage-point New York City personal income tax increase on earners above $1 million.** State approval is required for the city-specific surcharge, which Mayor Zohran Mamdani has promoted to fund priorities such as universal childcare, yet Hochul has repeatedly cited risks of resident and business out-migration in rejecting the measure during budget talks. In its place, Hochul and the legislature advanced a pied-à-terre tax on luxury non-primary residences valued above $5 million, enacted in spring 2026 to generate roughly $500 million annually without altering city income tax rates. While the Democratic-controlled Assembly and Senate advanced narrower statewide rate adjustments on the highest earners in their one-house budget proposals, these fell short of granting the city the full authority Mamdani requested. With the FY2027 budget process now concluded and no scheduled override mechanism before 2027, traders assign the specific proposal only a slim chance of enactment in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$60,554 Vol.
$60,554 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$60,554 Vol.
$60,554 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Governor Kathy Hochul’s consistent opposition remains the central barrier to the proposed two-percentage-point New York City personal income tax increase on earners above $1 million.** State approval is required for the city-specific surcharge, which Mayor Zohran Mamdani has promoted to fund priorities such as universal childcare, yet Hochul has repeatedly cited risks of resident and business out-migration in rejecting the measure during budget talks.
In its place, Hochul and the legislature advanced a pied-à-terre tax on luxury non-primary residences valued above $5 million, enacted in spring 2026 to generate roughly $500 million annually without altering city income tax rates. While the Democratic-controlled Assembly and Senate advanced narrower statewide rate adjustments on the highest earners in their one-house budget proposals, these fell short of granting the city the full authority Mamdani requested. With the FY2027 budget process now concluded and no scheduled override mechanism before 2027, traders assign the specific proposal only a slim chance of enactment in the remaining months of 2026.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$60,554End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Governor Kathy Hochul’s consistent opposition remains the central barrier to the proposed two-percentage-point New York City personal income tax increase on earners above $1 million.** State approval is required for the city-specific surcharge, which Mayor Zohran Mamdani has promoted to fund priorities such as universal childcare, yet Hochul has repeatedly cited risks of resident and business out-migration in rejecting the measure during budget talks.
In its place, Hochul and the legislature advanced a pied-à-terre tax on luxury non-primary residences valued above $5 million, enacted in spring 2026 to generate roughly $500 million annually without altering city income tax rates. While the Democratic-controlled Assembly and Senate advanced narrower statewide rate adjustments on the highest earners in their one-house budget proposals, these fell short of granting the city the full authority Mamdani requested. With the FY2027 budget process now concluded and no scheduled override mechanism before 2027, traders assign the specific proposal only a slim chance of enactment in the remaining months of 2026.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$60,554End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Governor Kathy Hochul’s consistent opposition remains the central barrier to the proposed two-percentage-point New York City personal income tax increase on earners above $1 million.** State approval is required for the city-specific surcharge, which Mayor Zohran Mamdani has promoted to fund priorities such as universal childcare, yet Hochul has repeatedly cited risks of resident and business out-migration in rejecting the measure during budget talks. In its place, Hochul and the legislature advanced a pied-à-terre tax on luxury non-primary residences valued above $5 million, enacted in spring 2026 to generate roughly $500 million annually without altering city income tax rates. While the Democratic-controlled Assembly and Senate advanced narrower statewide rate adjustments on the highest earners in their one-house budget proposals, these fell short of granting the city the full authority Mamdani requested. With the FY2027 budget process now concluded and no scheduled override mechanism before 2027, traders assign the specific proposal only a slim chance of enactment in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions