Trader consensus on Polymarket prices April 2026 monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase at 0.5% or 0.6%, each implying 30% probability, reflecting balanced expectations after March's hotter-than-expected 0.9% month-over-month rise driven by a 21.2% gasoline surge that pushed annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent Cleveland Fed nowcast as of April 29 points to 0.45% headline and 0.21% core CPI, supporting moderation amid stabilizing energy prices and lagging shelter costs like owners' equivalent rent, though upside risks linger from persistent services inflation and elevated consumer expectations at 3.4% year-ahead per New York Fed. Key differentiator: final energy and housing data ahead of the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release could tip the closely contested odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,735 Vol.
$19,735 Vol.
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
3%
0.4%
12%
0.5%
30%
0.6%
31%
0.7%
18%
0.8%
5%
0.9%
2%
1.0%
1%
≥1.1%
2%
$19,735 Vol.
$19,735 Vol.
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
$3,867 Vol.
3%
0.4%
$3,332 Vol.
12%
0.5%
$4,076 Vol.
30%
0.6%
$1,080 Vol.
31%
0.7%
$1,580 Vol.
18%
0.8%
$1,868 Vol.
5%
0.9%
$1,159 Vol.
2%
1.0%
$1,796 Vol.
1%
≥1.1%
$977 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices April 2026 monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase at 0.5% or 0.6%, each implying 30% probability, reflecting balanced expectations after March's hotter-than-expected 0.9% month-over-month rise driven by a 21.2% gasoline surge that pushed annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent Cleveland Fed nowcast as of April 29 points to 0.45% headline and 0.21% core CPI, supporting moderation amid stabilizing energy prices and lagging shelter costs like owners' equivalent rent, though upside risks linger from persistent services inflation and elevated consumer expectations at 3.4% year-ahead per New York Fed. Key differentiator: final energy and housing data ahead of the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release could tip the closely contested odds.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$19,735End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices April 2026 monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase at 0.5% or 0.6%, each implying 30% probability, reflecting balanced expectations after March's hotter-than-expected 0.9% month-over-month rise driven by a 21.2% gasoline surge that pushed annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent Cleveland Fed nowcast as of April 29 points to 0.45% headline and 0.21% core CPI, supporting moderation amid stabilizing energy prices and lagging shelter costs like owners' equivalent rent, though upside risks linger from persistent services inflation and elevated consumer expectations at 3.4% year-ahead per New York Fed. Key differentiator: final energy and housing data ahead of the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release could tip the closely contested odds.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$19,735End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices April 2026 monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase at 0.5% or 0.6%, each implying 30% probability, reflecting balanced expectations after March's hotter-than-expected 0.9% month-over-month rise driven by a 21.2% gasoline surge that pushed annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent Cleveland Fed nowcast as of April 29 points to 0.45% headline and 0.21% core CPI, supporting moderation amid stabilizing energy prices and lagging shelter costs like owners' equivalent rent, though upside risks linger from persistent services inflation and elevated consumer expectations at 3.4% year-ahead per New York Fed. Key differentiator: final energy and housing data ahead of the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release could tip the closely contested odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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