NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—diameters around 11–16 meters—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.005%, justifying trader consensus at 63.5% implied odds for "No" on tracked near-Earth objects. However, elevated "Yes" sentiment stems from the untracked population of small meteoroids, whose baseline frequency yields several 5kt-scale bolides annually per satellite and infrasound analyses, amplified by the American Meteor Society's Q1 2026 report documenting a 3.9-sigma surge in large fireballs—double the prior average of 50+ witness events, with sonic booms and radiant clustering hinting at sporadic flux changes. CNEOS fireball monitoring continues through December, with resolution hinging on confirmed global energy thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$295,306 Vol.
$295,306 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$295,306 Vol.
$295,306 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—diameters around 11–16 meters—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.005%, justifying trader consensus at 63.5% implied odds for "No" on tracked near-Earth objects. However, elevated "Yes" sentiment stems from the untracked population of small meteoroids, whose baseline frequency yields several 5kt-scale bolides annually per satellite and infrasound analyses, amplified by the American Meteor Society's Q1 2026 report documenting a 3.9-sigma surge in large fireballs—double the prior average of 50+ witness events, with sonic booms and radiant clustering hinting at sporadic flux changes. CNEOS fireball monitoring continues through December, with resolution hinging on confirmed global energy thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$295,306End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—diameters around 11–16 meters—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.005%, justifying trader consensus at 63.5% implied odds for "No" on tracked near-Earth objects. However, elevated "Yes" sentiment stems from the untracked population of small meteoroids, whose baseline frequency yields several 5kt-scale bolides annually per satellite and infrasound analyses, amplified by the American Meteor Society's Q1 2026 report documenting a 3.9-sigma surge in large fireballs—double the prior average of 50+ witness events, with sonic booms and radiant clustering hinting at sporadic flux changes. CNEOS fireball monitoring continues through December, with resolution hinging on confirmed global energy thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$295,306End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, with only two tiny asteroids—diameters around 11–16 meters—carrying negligible cumulative impact probabilities below 0.005%, justifying trader consensus at 63.5% implied odds for "No" on tracked near-Earth objects. However, elevated "Yes" sentiment stems from the untracked population of small meteoroids, whose baseline frequency yields several 5kt-scale bolides annually per satellite and infrasound analyses, amplified by the American Meteor Society's Q1 2026 report documenting a 3.9-sigma surge in large fireballs—double the prior average of 50+ witness events, with sonic booms and radiant clustering hinting at sporadic flux changes. CNEOS fireball monitoring continues through December, with resolution hinging on confirmed global energy thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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