Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Venezuelan crude oil production reaching 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in any 2026 month per OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report data, already surpassed with March output at 1.095 million bpd and April exports hitting 1.23 million bpd amid surging U.S. (445,000 bpd) and India (374,000 bpd) shipments. This momentum follows U.S. sanctions relief after early-2026 political shifts, PDVSA's Orinoco Belt ramp-up reversing blockade-induced cuts, and preliminary Chevron-Shell production pacts. Odds taper to 82% for 1.1 million bpd and 41% for 1.2 million bpd due to aging infrastructure and $1.4 billion investment hurdles. Traders eye May OPEC data and new contract approvals for further shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$95,018 Vol.
28 feb 2027
1 millón
94%
1,1 millones
82%
1,2 millones
38%
1,3 millones
26%
1,4 millones
20%
1,5 millones
18%
1,7 millones
41%
2 millones
7%
$95,018 Vol.
1 millón
$25,815 Vol.
94%
1,1 millones
$14,013 Vol.
82%
1,2 millones
$8,749 Vol.
38%
1,3 millones
$6,100 Vol.
26%
1,4 millones
$16,339 Vol.
20%
1,5 millones
$7,814 Vol.
18%
1,7 millones
$3,651 Vol.
41%
2 millones
$12,536 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Venezuelan crude oil production reaching 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in any 2026 month per OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report data, already surpassed with March output at 1.095 million bpd and April exports hitting 1.23 million bpd amid surging U.S. (445,000 bpd) and India (374,000 bpd) shipments. This momentum follows U.S. sanctions relief after early-2026 political shifts, PDVSA's Orinoco Belt ramp-up reversing blockade-induced cuts, and preliminary Chevron-Shell production pacts. Odds taper to 82% for 1.1 million bpd and 41% for 1.2 million bpd due to aging infrastructure and $1.4 billion investment hurdles. Traders eye May OPEC data and new contract approvals for further shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volumen
$95,018Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Venezuelan crude oil production reaching 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in any 2026 month per OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report data, already surpassed with March output at 1.095 million bpd and April exports hitting 1.23 million bpd amid surging U.S. (445,000 bpd) and India (374,000 bpd) shipments. This momentum follows U.S. sanctions relief after early-2026 political shifts, PDVSA's Orinoco Belt ramp-up reversing blockade-induced cuts, and preliminary Chevron-Shell production pacts. Odds taper to 82% for 1.1 million bpd and 41% for 1.2 million bpd due to aging infrastructure and $1.4 billion investment hurdles. Traders eye May OPEC data and new contract approvals for further shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volumen
$95,018Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Venezuelan crude oil production reaching 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in any 2026 month per OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report data, already surpassed with March output at 1.095 million bpd and April exports hitting 1.23 million bpd amid surging U.S. (445,000 bpd) and India (374,000 bpd) shipments. This momentum follows U.S. sanctions relief after early-2026 political shifts, PDVSA's Orinoco Belt ramp-up reversing blockade-induced cuts, and preliminary Chevron-Shell production pacts. Odds taper to 82% for 1.1 million bpd and 41% for 1.2 million bpd due to aging infrastructure and $1.4 billion investment hurdles. Traders eye May OPEC data and new contract approvals for further shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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