President Trump’s public statements favoring acquisition of Greenland, including repeated references to national security needs in the Arctic, and the January 2026 introduction of the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act have generated discussion but produced no binding congressional authorization, Senate approval, or completed treaty negotiations. The bill remains referred to the House Foreign Affairs Committee with no further advancement. Diplomatic pushback from Denmark, Greenlandic leaders, and NATO partners, combined with the procedural requirements for formal territorial incorporation, has limited progress. Operations yielding U.S. influence in Venezuela have not extended to annexation, and no comparable legal or military pathways have advanced through mid-2026. Traders therefore assign the low probability to the absence of verifiable steps that would meet the market’s resolution criteria by year-end.