Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.5% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and ongoing US-Israel military campaign. Despite economic collapse from currency devaluation, sanctions, and war damage—sparking unrest that killed over 500 earlier this year—the regime has maintained control through intensified crackdowns, including executions of anti-regime figures in early April, mass arrests, nationwide internet blackouts, and IRGC deployments in urban centers. No verified reports of leadership decapitation, military defections, or uncontainable uprisings have emerged in the past 30 days. While a sudden escalation in protests, supreme leader health crisis, or proxy failures could theoretically shift dynamics, the security apparatus's loyalty and historical survival patterns underpin high confidence against near-term overthrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$14,048,206 Vol.
$14,048,206 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$14,048,206 Vol.
$14,048,206 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.5% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and ongoing US-Israel military campaign. Despite economic collapse from currency devaluation, sanctions, and war damage—sparking unrest that killed over 500 earlier this year—the regime has maintained control through intensified crackdowns, including executions of anti-regime figures in early April, mass arrests, nationwide internet blackouts, and IRGC deployments in urban centers. No verified reports of leadership decapitation, military defections, or uncontainable uprisings have emerged in the past 30 days. While a sudden escalation in protests, supreme leader health crisis, or proxy failures could theoretically shift dynamics, the security apparatus's loyalty and historical survival patterns underpin high confidence against near-term overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volumen
$14,048,206Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.5% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and ongoing US-Israel military campaign. Despite economic collapse from currency devaluation, sanctions, and war damage—sparking unrest that killed over 500 earlier this year—the regime has maintained control through intensified crackdowns, including executions of anti-regime figures in early April, mass arrests, nationwide internet blackouts, and IRGC deployments in urban centers. No verified reports of leadership decapitation, military defections, or uncontainable uprisings have emerged in the past 30 days. While a sudden escalation in protests, supreme leader health crisis, or proxy failures could theoretically shift dynamics, the security apparatus's loyalty and historical survival patterns underpin high confidence against near-term overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$14,064,744Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.5% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and ongoing US-Israel military campaign. Despite economic collapse from currency devaluation, sanctions, and war damage—sparking unrest that killed over 500 earlier this year—the regime has maintained control through intensified crackdowns, including executions of anti-regime figures in early April, mass arrests, nationwide internet blackouts, and IRGC deployments in urban centers. No verified reports of leadership decapitation, military defections, or uncontainable uprisings have emerged in the past 30 days. While a sudden escalation in protests, supreme leader health crisis, or proxy failures could theoretically shift dynamics, the security apparatus's loyalty and historical survival patterns underpin high confidence against near-term overthrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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