SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has propelled market-implied odds to 95.9% for it IPOing before OpenAI, as the rocket and Starlink satellite operator targets an early June roadshow and listing at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation. Traders see this as a clear timeline edge, fueled by SpaceX's surging revenue from reusable launch vehicles and global broadband expansion, contrasting OpenAI's recent revenue shortfalls, massive $600 billion compute commitments, and CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations about Q4 2026 readiness amid organizational hurdles and profitability delays until 2030. While consensus reflects real capital on SpaceX's advanced stage, realistic risks include SEC review extensions, Musk's dual-class share structure drawing scrutiny, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration via surprise filing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSpaceX
$74,013 Vol.
$74,013 Vol.
31 dic 2027
SpaceX
$74,013 Vol.
$74,013 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has propelled market-implied odds to 95.9% for it IPOing before OpenAI, as the rocket and Starlink satellite operator targets an early June roadshow and listing at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation. Traders see this as a clear timeline edge, fueled by SpaceX's surging revenue from reusable launch vehicles and global broadband expansion, contrasting OpenAI's recent revenue shortfalls, massive $600 billion compute commitments, and CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations about Q4 2026 readiness amid organizational hurdles and profitability delays until 2030. While consensus reflects real capital on SpaceX's advanced stage, realistic risks include SEC review extensions, Musk's dual-class share structure drawing scrutiny, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration via surprise filing.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volumen
$74,013Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has propelled market-implied odds to 95.9% for it IPOing before OpenAI, as the rocket and Starlink satellite operator targets an early June roadshow and listing at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation. Traders see this as a clear timeline edge, fueled by SpaceX's surging revenue from reusable launch vehicles and global broadband expansion, contrasting OpenAI's recent revenue shortfalls, massive $600 billion compute commitments, and CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations about Q4 2026 readiness amid organizational hurdles and profitability delays until 2030. While consensus reflects real capital on SpaceX's advanced stage, realistic risks include SEC review extensions, Musk's dual-class share structure drawing scrutiny, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration via surprise filing.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$74,013Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has propelled market-implied odds to 95.9% for it IPOing before OpenAI, as the rocket and Starlink satellite operator targets an early June roadshow and listing at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation. Traders see this as a clear timeline edge, fueled by SpaceX's surging revenue from reusable launch vehicles and global broadband expansion, contrasting OpenAI's recent revenue shortfalls, massive $600 billion compute commitments, and CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations about Q4 2026 readiness amid organizational hurdles and profitability delays until 2030. While consensus reflects real capital on SpaceX's advanced stage, realistic risks include SEC review extensions, Musk's dual-class share structure drawing scrutiny, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration via surprise filing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes