Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google as having the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, with Gemini 2.5 Pro securing a firm spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 (released April 16, ~1505 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23 launch). The Stanford 2026 AI Index reinforced this hierarchy as of March, showing Google at 1,494 Elo versus leaders at 1,503 and 1,495, while late-April challengers like DeepSeek V4 fell short in blind crowd-sourced evaluations. This positioning reflects Google's sustained competitive edge in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid rapid model iterations. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen leaderboard surge from xAI's Grok updates or Chinese labs like Alibaba, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGoogle 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,106,806 Vol.
$1,106,806 Vol.
30 abr 2026
100%
Anthropic
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,106,806 Vol.
$1,106,806 Vol.
30 abr 2026
$166,169 Vol.
100%
Anthropic
$352,184 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$15,246 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$26,383 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$104,795 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$101,958 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$41,993 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$29,772 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,541 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,890 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$34,831 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,567 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$22,189 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$110,437 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google as having the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, with Gemini 2.5 Pro securing a firm spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 (released April 16, ~1505 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23 launch). The Stanford 2026 AI Index reinforced this hierarchy as of March, showing Google at 1,494 Elo versus leaders at 1,503 and 1,495, while late-April challengers like DeepSeek V4 fell short in blind crowd-sourced evaluations. This positioning reflects Google's sustained competitive edge in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid rapid model iterations. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen leaderboard surge from xAI's Grok updates or Chinese labs like Alibaba, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,106,806Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google as having the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, with Gemini 2.5 Pro securing a firm spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 (released April 16, ~1505 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23 launch). The Stanford 2026 AI Index reinforced this hierarchy as of March, showing Google at 1,494 Elo versus leaders at 1,503 and 1,495, while late-April challengers like DeepSeek V4 fell short in blind crowd-sourced evaluations. This positioning reflects Google's sustained competitive edge in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid rapid model iterations. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen leaderboard surge from xAI's Grok updates or Chinese labs like Alibaba, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,106,806Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google as having the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, with Gemini 2.5 Pro securing a firm spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 (released April 16, ~1505 Elo) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23 launch). The Stanford 2026 AI Index reinforced this hierarchy as of March, showing Google at 1,494 Elo versus leaders at 1,503 and 1,495, while late-April challengers like DeepSeek V4 fell short in blind crowd-sourced evaluations. This positioning reflects Google's sustained competitive edge in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid rapid model iterations. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen leaderboard surge from xAI's Grok updates or Chinese labs like Alibaba, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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