Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 release, which extended its dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping high-Elo rankings at 1504 and coding at 1549 Elo—surpassing Google Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (third place). Anthropic's rapid iteration, shipping major updates biweekly since January, has solidified competitive positioning in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid a heated large language model race. Google's 22.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks, but lacks recent momentum; OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to overtake leaders. Watch May drops like Claude Sonnet 4.8 or Gemini updates, as leaderboard shifts could swing odds near resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 75%
Google 23%
OpenAI 2.6%
xAI <1%
$2,441,277 Vol.
$2,441,277 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
75%
23%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 23%
OpenAI 2.6%
xAI <1%
$2,441,277 Vol.
$2,441,277 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
$200,061 Vol.
75%
$168,248 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$261,236 Vol.
3%
xAI
$186,514 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$147,736 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$150,688 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$152,768 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$159,832 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$180,625 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$155,241 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$126,063 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$144,711 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$119,254 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$135,703 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$152,799 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 release, which extended its dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping high-Elo rankings at 1504 and coding at 1549 Elo—surpassing Google Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (third place). Anthropic's rapid iteration, shipping major updates biweekly since January, has solidified competitive positioning in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid a heated large language model race. Google's 22.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks, but lacks recent momentum; OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to overtake leaders. Watch May drops like Claude Sonnet 4.8 or Gemini updates, as leaderboard shifts could swing odds near resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$2,441,277Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 release, which extended its dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping high-Elo rankings at 1504 and coding at 1549 Elo—surpassing Google Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (third place). Anthropic's rapid iteration, shipping major updates biweekly since January, has solidified competitive positioning in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid a heated large language model race. Google's 22.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks, but lacks recent momentum; OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to overtake leaders. Watch May drops like Claude Sonnet 4.8 or Gemini updates, as leaderboard shifts could swing odds near resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,441,277Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 release, which extended its dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping high-Elo rankings at 1504 and coding at 1549 Elo—surpassing Google Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (third place). Anthropic's rapid iteration, shipping major updates biweekly since January, has solidified competitive positioning in reasoning and coding benchmarks amid a heated large language model race. Google's 22.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks, but lacks recent momentum; OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to overtake leaders. Watch May drops like Claude Sonnet 4.8 or Gemini updates, as leaderboard shifts could swing odds near resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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