Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 as the frontrunner at 59% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, propelled by its mid-April 2026 release that seized the top four spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of rivals. Google trails at 22.5%, buoyed by anticipation for Gemini advancements at the May 19 I/O developer conference, potentially challenging the frontier amid recursive self-improvement signals. OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 update lags at 9.3% after underwhelming relative gains, while xAI's Grok 4.3 and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek hover low due to benchmark gaps; watch for surprise releases or evaluations that could shift the closely contested race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 59%
Google 22%
OpenAI 8.8%
xAI 5.0%
$371,634 Vol.
$371,634 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
59%
22%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
5%
DeepSeek
3%
Z.ai
2%
Meta
2%
Mistral
1%
Amazon
1%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 59%
Google 22%
OpenAI 8.8%
xAI 5.0%
$371,634 Vol.
$371,634 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$8,464 Vol.
59%
$5,223 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$33,789 Vol.
9%
xAI
$13,545 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$247,228 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$7,346 Vol.
2%
Meta
$2,876 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$3,328 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$1,436 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$3,611 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$5,108 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$2,063 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$2,199 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,728 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$32,690 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 as the frontrunner at 59% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, propelled by its mid-April 2026 release that seized the top four spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of rivals. Google trails at 22.5%, buoyed by anticipation for Gemini advancements at the May 19 I/O developer conference, potentially challenging the frontier amid recursive self-improvement signals. OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 update lags at 9.3% after underwhelming relative gains, while xAI's Grok 4.3 and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek hover low due to benchmark gaps; watch for surprise releases or evaluations that could shift the closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$371,634Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 as the frontrunner at 59% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, propelled by its mid-April 2026 release that seized the top four spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of rivals. Google trails at 22.5%, buoyed by anticipation for Gemini advancements at the May 19 I/O developer conference, potentially challenging the frontier amid recursive self-improvement signals. OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 update lags at 9.3% after underwhelming relative gains, while xAI's Grok 4.3 and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek hover low due to benchmark gaps; watch for surprise releases or evaluations that could shift the closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$371,634Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 as the frontrunner at 59% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, propelled by its mid-April 2026 release that seized the top four spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of rivals. Google trails at 22.5%, buoyed by anticipation for Gemini advancements at the May 19 I/O developer conference, potentially challenging the frontier amid recursive self-improvement signals. OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 update lags at 9.3% after underwhelming relative gains, while xAI's Grok 4.3 and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek hover low due to benchmark gaps; watch for surprise releases or evaluations that could shift the closely contested race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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