Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 commands a dominant 64.5% implied probability on Polymarket after topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores above 1500 and leading coding benchmarks since its mid-April launch, outpacing rivals in human preference battles and agentic capabilities. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview trails closely at 26.5%, buoyed by strong multimodal performance and recent Gemma 4 open-weight releases, while OpenAI's freshly launched GPT-5.5 on April 23 excels in long-context reasoning and computer use but has yet to overtake Claude in overall rankings, contributing to its 6.5% odds. Traders anticipate Anthropic's iteration momentum—potentially including Claude 5 previews—sustaining its edge through June amid intensifying competition from these labs' upcoming model drops.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 64.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,172,716 Vol.
$5,172,716 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
27%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
2%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 64.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,172,716 Vol.
$5,172,716 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$782,829 Vol.
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
$475,612 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$282,944 Vol.
7%
xAI
$990,500 Vol.
2%
Meta
$95,974 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$471,821 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$442,671 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$92,830 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$98,263 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$321,862 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$317,471 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$271,634 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$117,598 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$303,045 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$107,661 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 commands a dominant 64.5% implied probability on Polymarket after topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores above 1500 and leading coding benchmarks since its mid-April launch, outpacing rivals in human preference battles and agentic capabilities. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview trails closely at 26.5%, buoyed by strong multimodal performance and recent Gemma 4 open-weight releases, while OpenAI's freshly launched GPT-5.5 on April 23 excels in long-context reasoning and computer use but has yet to overtake Claude in overall rankings, contributing to its 6.5% odds. Traders anticipate Anthropic's iteration momentum—potentially including Claude 5 previews—sustaining its edge through June amid intensifying competition from these labs' upcoming model drops.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$5,172,716Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 commands a dominant 64.5% implied probability on Polymarket after topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores above 1500 and leading coding benchmarks since its mid-April launch, outpacing rivals in human preference battles and agentic capabilities. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview trails closely at 26.5%, buoyed by strong multimodal performance and recent Gemma 4 open-weight releases, while OpenAI's freshly launched GPT-5.5 on April 23 excels in long-context reasoning and computer use but has yet to overtake Claude in overall rankings, contributing to its 6.5% odds. Traders anticipate Anthropic's iteration momentum—potentially including Claude 5 previews—sustaining its edge through June amid intensifying competition from these labs' upcoming model drops.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$5,172,716Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 commands a dominant 64.5% implied probability on Polymarket after topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores above 1500 and leading coding benchmarks since its mid-April launch, outpacing rivals in human preference battles and agentic capabilities. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview trails closely at 26.5%, buoyed by strong multimodal performance and recent Gemma 4 open-weight releases, while OpenAI's freshly launched GPT-5.5 on April 23 excels in long-context reasoning and computer use but has yet to overtake Claude in overall rankings, contributing to its 6.5% odds. Traders anticipate Anthropic's iteration momentum—potentially including Claude 5 previews—sustaining its edge through June amid intensifying competition from these labs' upcoming model drops.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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