Anthropic commands a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 launch, which seized the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top four spots with Elo scores around 1504-1505, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench. This recent dominance—bolstered by frequent updates like Opus 4.6 in February—has solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's iterative edge over rivals. Google trails at 26.5% via competitive Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, while OpenAI's 6.5% reflects no major April release amid GPT-5.x delays. Lower odds for xAI (2.4%) and others stem from lagging leaderboard positions, though surprise model drops or benchmark shifts before quarter-end could alter dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 64.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,171,646 Vol.
$5,171,646 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
27%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
2%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 64.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,171,646 Vol.
$5,171,646 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$782,665 Vol.
65%
Título del ítem del grupo
$475,605 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$282,230 Vol.
7%
xAI
$990,500 Vol.
2%
Meta
$95,974 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$471,637 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$442,671 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$92,830 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$98,263 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$321,862 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$317,471 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$271,634 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$117,598 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$303,045 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$107,661 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 launch, which seized the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top four spots with Elo scores around 1504-1505, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench. This recent dominance—bolstered by frequent updates like Opus 4.6 in February—has solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's iterative edge over rivals. Google trails at 26.5% via competitive Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, while OpenAI's 6.5% reflects no major April release amid GPT-5.x delays. Lower odds for xAI (2.4%) and others stem from lagging leaderboard positions, though surprise model drops or benchmark shifts before quarter-end could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$5,171,646Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 launch, which seized the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top four spots with Elo scores around 1504-1505, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench. This recent dominance—bolstered by frequent updates like Opus 4.6 in February—has solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's iterative edge over rivals. Google trails at 26.5% via competitive Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, while OpenAI's 6.5% reflects no major April release amid GPT-5.x delays. Lower odds for xAI (2.4%) and others stem from lagging leaderboard positions, though surprise model drops or benchmark shifts before quarter-end could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$5,171,646Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 17 launch, which seized the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top four spots with Elo scores around 1504-1505, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks like SWE-bench. This recent dominance—bolstered by frequent updates like Opus 4.6 in February—has solidified trader consensus on Anthropic's iterative edge over rivals. Google trails at 26.5% via competitive Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, while OpenAI's 6.5% reflects no major April release amid GPT-5.x delays. Lower odds for xAI (2.4%) and others stem from lagging leaderboard positions, though surprise model drops or benchmark shifts before quarter-end could alter dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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