Trader consensus strongly favors President Trump mentioning Social Security (92% implied probability) and "Beautiful Bill" (87%) during his May 1 remarks at The Villages Charter School, reflecting the event's focus on senior economic relief via the One Big Beautiful Bill, including a $6,000 Senior Bonus Deduction for seniors earning under $75,000 single/$150,000 married and no taxes on tips or Social Security benefits. High odds on frequent repetitions of "tax" (70% for 15+ times) and "job" (70% for 10+ times) align with the agenda's emphasis on tax breaks and job creation for the retirement community's 150,000+ residents, a longtime Trump stronghold. Recent April 27 announcement drove trading volume to $3.4K, with tight Secret Service preparations following the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner assassination attempt; Q&A counts toward resolution from official live transcripts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTax 15+ times
70%
Job 10+ times
72%
Hell 10+ times
35%
Nuclear 3+ times
54%
Six Seven
18%
Stock market / 401(k)
59%
Obliterated / Obliteration
56%
Obamacare
45%
Soleimani
37%
Social Security
94%
Kickback
30%
Mars
26%
Unaffordable Care Act
45%
Deduction
70%
Mar-a-Lago
39%
Tariff
63%
Fat
54%
Beautiful Bill
87%
Drill Baby Drill
48%
China
63%
Save America
66%
Crypto / Bitcoin
7%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
42%
Military
75%
American Dream
32%
Venezuela
58%
Cookie / Potato
40%
Disney
29%
Ballroom
57%
Waiter / Waitress
50%
No No No
50%
DoorDash / McDonald's
50%
Melania / First Lady
35%
-No Qualifying Event-
10%
$3,469 Vol.
Tax 15+ times
70%
Job 10+ times
72%
Hell 10+ times
35%
Nuclear 3+ times
54%
Six Seven
18%
Stock market / 401(k)
59%
Obliterated / Obliteration
56%
Obamacare
45%
Soleimani
37%
Social Security
94%
Kickback
30%
Mars
26%
Unaffordable Care Act
45%
Deduction
70%
Mar-a-Lago
39%
Tariff
63%
Fat
54%
Beautiful Bill
87%
Drill Baby Drill
48%
China
63%
Save America
66%
Crypto / Bitcoin
7%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
42%
Military
75%
American Dream
32%
Venezuela
58%
Cookie / Potato
40%
Disney
29%
Ballroom
57%
Waiter / Waitress
50%
No No No
50%
DoorDash / McDonald's
50%
Melania / First Lady
35%
-No Qualifying Event-
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during events at The Villages scheduled for May 1, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
This market is explicitly about Trump's visit to The Villages scheduled for May 1, 2026, 3PM ET. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 5:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during events at The Villages scheduled for May 1, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
This market is explicitly about Trump's visit to The Villages scheduled for May 1, 2026, 3PM ET. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors President Trump mentioning Social Security (92% implied probability) and "Beautiful Bill" (87%) during his May 1 remarks at The Villages Charter School, reflecting the event's focus on senior economic relief via the One Big Beautiful Bill, including a $6,000 Senior Bonus Deduction for seniors earning under $75,000 single/$150,000 married and no taxes on tips or Social Security benefits. High odds on frequent repetitions of "tax" (70% for 15+ times) and "job" (70% for 10+ times) align with the agenda's emphasis on tax breaks and job creation for the retirement community's 150,000+ residents, a longtime Trump stronghold. Recent April 27 announcement drove trading volume to $3.4K, with tight Secret Service preparations following the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner assassination attempt; Q&A counts toward resolution from official live transcripts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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