Stalled US-Iran negotiations over a ceasefire and nuclear curbs underpin the 88.5% trader consensus against a deal by May 31, reflecting a deepening impasse amid the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and end hostilities—while postponing nuclear talks—was swiftly rejected by the Trump administration, which demands upfront limits on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles. Supreme Leader Khamenei's public dismissal of US terms, coupled with no progress since April 12 Islamabad talks where JD Vance deemed offers insufficient, signals maximalist positions on both sides. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, such as sanctions relief concessions or verified de-escalation, the "no war, no peace" standoff persists, with historical JCPOA revival failures reinforcing skepticism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$36,393 Vol.
$36,393 Vol.
31 may 2026
$36,393 Vol.
$36,393 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Stalled US-Iran negotiations over a ceasefire and nuclear curbs underpin the 88.5% trader consensus against a deal by May 31, reflecting a deepening impasse amid the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and end hostilities—while postponing nuclear talks—was swiftly rejected by the Trump administration, which demands upfront limits on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles. Supreme Leader Khamenei's public dismissal of US terms, coupled with no progress since April 12 Islamabad talks where JD Vance deemed offers insufficient, signals maximalist positions on both sides. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, such as sanctions relief concessions or verified de-escalation, the "no war, no peace" standoff persists, with historical JCPOA revival failures reinforcing skepticism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volumen
$36,393Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Stalled US-Iran negotiations over a ceasefire and nuclear curbs underpin the 88.5% trader consensus against a deal by May 31, reflecting a deepening impasse amid the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and end hostilities—while postponing nuclear talks—was swiftly rejected by the Trump administration, which demands upfront limits on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles. Supreme Leader Khamenei's public dismissal of US terms, coupled with no progress since April 12 Islamabad talks where JD Vance deemed offers insufficient, signals maximalist positions on both sides. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, such as sanctions relief concessions or verified de-escalation, the "no war, no peace" standoff persists, with historical JCPOA revival failures reinforcing skepticism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$36,393Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran negotiations over a ceasefire and nuclear curbs underpin the 88.5% trader consensus against a deal by May 31, reflecting a deepening impasse amid the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and end hostilities—while postponing nuclear talks—was swiftly rejected by the Trump administration, which demands upfront limits on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles. Supreme Leader Khamenei's public dismissal of US terms, coupled with no progress since April 12 Islamabad talks where JD Vance deemed offers insufficient, signals maximalist positions on both sides. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, such as sanctions relief concessions or verified de-escalation, the "no war, no peace" standoff persists, with historical JCPOA revival failures reinforcing skepticism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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