This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd warned on April 29, 2026, that a nuclear test by Russia or the US would trigger an uncontrollable "spiral" of resumptions, stressing the treaty's monitoring system can detect any explosion worldwide. Russia has observed the nuclear testing moratorium since 1990 despite withdrawing CTBT ratification in 2023 and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent drills—Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2 and nuclear-related exercises in Kaliningrad around April 27—involved delivery systems without detonations, amid no activity at the Novaya Zemlya site. Ongoing Ukraine conflict, sanctions, and potential ceasefire talks heighten escalation risks but reinforce barriers to actual testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd warned on April 29, 2026, that a nuclear test by Russia or the US would trigger an uncontrollable "spiral" of resumptions, stressing the treaty's monitoring system can detect any explosion worldwide. Russia has observed the nuclear testing moratorium since 1990 despite withdrawing CTBT ratification in 2023 and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent drills—Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2 and nuclear-related exercises in Kaliningrad around April 27—involved delivery systems without detonations, amid no activity at the Novaya Zemlya site. Ongoing Ukraine conflict, sanctions, and potential ceasefire talks heighten escalation risks but reinforce barriers to actual testing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 28 2026
Russian nuclear corporation Rosatom begins loading fuel into Bangladesh’s first nuclear power plant, signaling peaceful nuclear activity rather than weapons testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
This peaceful nuclear energy development contrasted with fears of nuclear testing, reinforcing the market’s downward adjustment on the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test in 2026.
Apr 27 2026
Dutch defence analysis (Defence News) warns that Russia could be ready for a NATO conflict but stresses that “no evidence of a nuclear test preparation has emerged,” reinforcing
Dutch defence analysis (Defence News) warns that Russia could be ready for a NATO conflict but stresses that “no evidence of a nuclear test preparation has emerged,” reinforcing traders’ belief that a test is unlikely
Apr 27 2026
Ukrainian drone attack kills worker at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; Russia condemns Ukraine for attacks on nuclear facilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The incident underscored ongoing conflict around nuclear sites but was unrelated to any Russian nuclear test, contributing to a slight.
Apr 24 2026
Poland and France announce joint air‑force drills that will simulate nuclear strikes on Russian targets, shifting market focus to conventional posturing rather than a Russian
Poland and France announce joint air‑force drills that will simulate nuclear strikes on Russian targets, shifting market focus to conventional posturing rather than a Russian nuclear detonation
Apr 23 2026
Reuters reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warning European states against hosting French nuclear‑capable bombers, emphasizing “uncontrolled NATO build‑up”
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Reuters reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warning European states against hosting French nuclear‑capable bombers, emphasizing “uncontrolled NATO build‑up” but making no mention of any Russian test plans
Apr 23 2026
France and Poland announce air force exercises practicing nuclear strikes on targets in Russia, including St. Petersburg
NATO’s nuclear-capable exercises near Russia increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing, maintaining market skepticism about a test.
Apr 22 2026
Russia repeatedly launches drones and missiles near the Chernobyl nuclear site during attacks on Ukraine, raising accident risks but no nuclear test
Reports of Russian military activity near nuclear facilities heightened fears of nuclear escalation but did not indicate any nuclear test, stabilizing the market.
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market commentary notes “absent CTBTO seismic data and Kremlin restraint statements” as the primary reason for the sharp drop in test‑probability odds
September 30, 2026 plunges to 8%23%
Polymarket market commentary notes “absent CTBTO seismic data and Kremlin restraint statements” as the primary reason for the sharp drop in test‑probability odds
Apr 1 2026
Russia’s state nuclear agency confirms no test activity at its Arctic test site, citing “routine maintenance only” and noting the absence of any seismic signatures
September 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
Russia’s state nuclear agency confirms no test activity at its Arctic test site, citing “routine maintenance only” and noting the absence of any seismic signatures
Apr 1 2026
Russia suspends participation in New START Treaty limits after February 2026 expiration
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%1%
Russia’s formal suspension of nuclear arms control commitments raised initial market concerns about potential nuclear testing, contributing to the early April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd warned on April 29, 2026, that a nuclear test by Russia or the US would trigger an uncontrollable "spiral" of resumptions, stressing the treaty's monitoring system can detect any explosion worldwide. Russia has observed the nuclear testing moratorium since 1990 despite withdrawing CTBT ratification in 2023 and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent drills—Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2 and nuclear-related exercises in Kaliningrad around April 27—involved delivery systems without detonations, amid no activity at the Novaya Zemlya site. Ongoing Ukraine conflict, sanctions, and potential ceasefire talks heighten escalation risks but reinforce barriers to actual testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd warned on April 29, 2026, that a nuclear test by Russia or the US would trigger an uncontrollable "spiral" of resumptions, stressing the treaty's monitoring system can detect any explosion worldwide. Russia has observed the nuclear testing moratorium since 1990 despite withdrawing CTBT ratification in 2023 and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent drills—Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2 and nuclear-related exercises in Kaliningrad around April 27—involved delivery systems without detonations, amid no activity at the Novaya Zemlya site. Ongoing Ukraine conflict, sanctions, and potential ceasefire talks heighten escalation risks but reinforce barriers to actual testing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 28 2026
Russian nuclear corporation Rosatom begins loading fuel into Bangladesh’s first nuclear power plant, signaling peaceful nuclear activity rather than weapons testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
This peaceful nuclear energy development contrasted with fears of nuclear testing, reinforcing the market’s downward adjustment on the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test in 2026.
Apr 27 2026
Dutch defence analysis (Defence News) warns that Russia could be ready for a NATO conflict but stresses that “no evidence of a nuclear test preparation has emerged,” reinforcing
Dutch defence analysis (Defence News) warns that Russia could be ready for a NATO conflict but stresses that “no evidence of a nuclear test preparation has emerged,” reinforcing traders’ belief that a test is unlikely
Apr 27 2026
Ukrainian drone attack kills worker at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; Russia condemns Ukraine for attacks on nuclear facilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The incident underscored ongoing conflict around nuclear sites but was unrelated to any Russian nuclear test, contributing to a slight.
Apr 24 2026
Poland and France announce joint air‑force drills that will simulate nuclear strikes on Russian targets, shifting market focus to conventional posturing rather than a Russian
Poland and France announce joint air‑force drills that will simulate nuclear strikes on Russian targets, shifting market focus to conventional posturing rather than a Russian nuclear detonation
Apr 23 2026
Reuters reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warning European states against hosting French nuclear‑capable bombers, emphasizing “uncontrolled NATO build‑up”
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Reuters reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warning European states against hosting French nuclear‑capable bombers, emphasizing “uncontrolled NATO build‑up” but making no mention of any Russian test plans
Apr 23 2026
France and Poland announce air force exercises practicing nuclear strikes on targets in Russia, including St. Petersburg
NATO’s nuclear-capable exercises near Russia increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing, maintaining market skepticism about a test.
Apr 22 2026
Russia repeatedly launches drones and missiles near the Chernobyl nuclear site during attacks on Ukraine, raising accident risks but no nuclear test
Reports of Russian military activity near nuclear facilities heightened fears of nuclear escalation but did not indicate any nuclear test, stabilizing the market.
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market commentary notes “absent CTBTO seismic data and Kremlin restraint statements” as the primary reason for the sharp drop in test‑probability odds
September 30, 2026 plunges to 8%23%
Polymarket market commentary notes “absent CTBTO seismic data and Kremlin restraint statements” as the primary reason for the sharp drop in test‑probability odds
Apr 1 2026
Russia’s state nuclear agency confirms no test activity at its Arctic test site, citing “routine maintenance only” and noting the absence of any seismic signatures
September 30, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
Russia’s state nuclear agency confirms no test activity at its Arctic test site, citing “routine maintenance only” and noting the absence of any seismic signatures
Apr 1 2026
Russia suspends participation in New START Treaty limits after February 2026 expiration
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%1%
Russia’s formal suspension of nuclear arms control commitments raised initial market concerns about potential nuclear testing, contributing to the early April.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con 10%, seguido de "30 de septiembre de 2026" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 10¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 10% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" ha generado $1.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con 10%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 10% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de septiembre de 2026" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $1.4 million operados en “¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 10¢ para "31 de diciembre de 2026" en el mercado "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 10% de que "31 de diciembre de 2026" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 10¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 90¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
La fecha de finalización programada del mercado "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" ha pasado, pero el mercado aún no ha sido resuelto oficialmente. La fecha de finalización indica cuándo se espera que el evento subyacente ocurra o sea conocible. El mercado permanece abierto para operar hasta que el resultado sea formalmente resuelto. Consulta el estado de resolución y la sección "Reglas" en esta página para actualizaciones.
El mercado "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" tiene una discusión creciente de 7 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes