Early June heavy rainfall episodes have driven 199.5 mm of accumulation through June 11, positioning total June precipitation well above the historical average of roughly 450 mm and underpinning the 61.5% market-implied probability for the 500 mm+ outcome. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall overall amid above-normal temperatures, yet the strong start has shifted trader focus toward sustained monsoon activity and potential tropical systems that could deliver the remaining volume needed. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus on continued showers and thunderstorm frequency supports the elevated odds for exceeding 500 mm, while lower bins reflect the risk of drier conditions later if steering patterns shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 62%
475-500mm 10%
400-425mm 9%
375-400mm 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<350mm
2%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
8%
400-425mm
9%
425-450mm
6%
450-475mm
5%
475-500mm
10%
500mm+
62%
500mm+ 62%
475-500mm 10%
400-425mm 9%
375-400mm 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<350mm
$449 Vol.
2%
350-375mm
$505 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$456 Vol.
8%
400-425mm
$277 Vol.
9%
425-450mm
$315 Vol.
6%
450-475mm
$373 Vol.
5%
475-500mm
$471 Vol.
10%
500mm+
$758 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Early June heavy rainfall episodes have driven 199.5 mm of accumulation through June 11, positioning total June precipitation well above the historical average of roughly 450 mm and underpinning the 61.5% market-implied probability for the 500 mm+ outcome. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall overall amid above-normal temperatures, yet the strong start has shifted trader focus toward sustained monsoon activity and potential tropical systems that could deliver the remaining volume needed. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus on continued showers and thunderstorm frequency supports the elevated odds for exceeding 500 mm, while lower bins reflect the risk of drier conditions later if steering patterns shift.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volumen
$3,605Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Early June heavy rainfall episodes have driven 199.5 mm of accumulation through June 11, positioning total June precipitation well above the historical average of roughly 450 mm and underpinning the 61.5% market-implied probability for the 500 mm+ outcome. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall overall amid above-normal temperatures, yet the strong start has shifted trader focus toward sustained monsoon activity and potential tropical systems that could deliver the remaining volume needed. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus on continued showers and thunderstorm frequency supports the elevated odds for exceeding 500 mm, while lower bins reflect the risk of drier conditions later if steering patterns shift.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,605Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early June heavy rainfall episodes have driven 199.5 mm of accumulation through June 11, positioning total June precipitation well above the historical average of roughly 450 mm and underpinning the 61.5% market-implied probability for the 500 mm+ outcome. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall overall amid above-normal temperatures, yet the strong start has shifted trader focus toward sustained monsoon activity and potential tropical systems that could deliver the remaining volume needed. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus on continued showers and thunderstorm frequency supports the elevated odds for exceeding 500 mm, while lower bins reflect the risk of drier conditions later if steering patterns shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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