Global surveillance data through mid-2026 show no novel pathogens meeting pandemic criteria, keeping the market-implied odds of a new pandemic this year at 89.5% for “No.” Confirmed case counts for high-risk viruses such as avian influenza and emerging coronaviruses remain low and geographically contained, with transmission dynamics reflecting typical seasonal patterns rather than sustained human-to-human spread. Official designations from the WHO and CDC continue to classify current threats as outbreaks or epidemics at most, consistent with historical baselines before major events. Traders appear to weigh robust post-2020 monitoring networks and the absence of rapid case growth or genetic shifts signaling increased virulence. Upcoming WHO updates on respiratory virus surveillance will provide the next key data points for assessing any shifts in risk.