Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for no new pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any novel pathogen achieving sustained human-to-human transmission at global scale, as tracked by WHO and CDC surveillance. Recent WHO developments, including R&D roadmaps for priority pathogens on April 7 and a major outbreak simulation exercise on April 27, underscore enhanced global preparedness without signaling imminent threats. Ongoing mpox clade I cases remain regionally contained (2,794 confirmed in the Americas through February), avian influenza shows no efficient human spread, and COVID-19 circulates at baseline levels post-waves. Realistic challenges include unexpected zoonotic spillovers like H5N1 gaining transmissibility or emerging vectors such as Oropouche virus, with key upcoming data from weekly WHO avian flu updates and seasonal respiratory reports.