Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined by official criteria including a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous U.S. per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite regional severe weather like U.S. tornado outbreaks and flash floods, alongside Colorado State University's latest forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season due to transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions reducing shear and activity. Historical baselines underscore rarity—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per year—though peak hurricane months June-November carry uncertainty pending NOAA updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
$215,755 Vol.
$215,755 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$215,755 Vol.
$215,755 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined by official criteria including a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous U.S. per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite regional severe weather like U.S. tornado outbreaks and flash floods, alongside Colorado State University's latest forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season due to transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions reducing shear and activity. Historical baselines underscore rarity—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per year—though peak hurricane months June-November carry uncertainty pending NOAA updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$215,755Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined by official criteria including a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous U.S. per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite regional severe weather like U.S. tornado outbreaks and flash floods, alongside Colorado State University's latest forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season due to transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions reducing shear and activity. Historical baselines underscore rarity—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per year—though peak hurricane months June-November carry uncertainty pending NOAA updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$215,845Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% probability of no natural disaster in 2026, defined by official criteria including a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous U.S. per Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying events through late April despite regional severe weather like U.S. tornado outbreaks and flash floods, alongside Colorado State University's latest forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season due to transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions reducing shear and activity. Historical baselines underscore rarity—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per year—though peak hurricane months June-November carry uncertainty pending NOAA updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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